Sizing Equipment for an Outdoor Event

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Hello all, and happy holidays!

I've been hired to provide SR for an outdoor gig with a needed coverage distance 40m. I have speakers I believe will cover this with dual 15" woofers and 1" CD. Modelling suggests approximately 120dB with 500 watts at 1m. So I'd be getting peaks around 90dB even back around 40m. This is just a little show in a park. Could someone confirm that this seems suitable?

The subwoofers are the tricky part. As of now, I plan on bringing a pair of 18s. Does anyone think this is overkill? I don't want to come up short but I also don't want to lug around much gear for this one off.

The band includes the typical drums, bass, guitar, keys, vox, etc.

Any help is appreciated!
 
IMHO, it all depends on your speaker component and environmental condition like wide, reflection, and position of the area. If the show is held at outdoor, minimum requirements should bring 2x 215 for top and 2x218 for sub for your main FOH
 
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Bring the 18" subs at a minimum. I have some single 18"s that "thump" indoors but when outside its a whole different ballgame. Nugroho probably has the right idea but I have gotten some pretty decent results with a pair of double 18s and matching 15" tops.