2011 U.S. Budget Cut in Perspective

Langston Holland

Sophomore
Jan 13, 2011
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Pensacola
Modified from an email I got from my Dad. Equal insults intended for both major political parties as well as us, the adolescent voters.

Shall we grow up or just hope the "big one" hits after we're dead?

2011USBudget.png

If there is discussion on this, be sure to honor the rules and keep it as nonpolitical as possible. :)
 
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Re: 2011 U.S. Budget Cut in Perspective

Modified from an email I got from my Dad. Equal insults intended for both major political parties as well as us, the adolescent voters.

Shall we grow up or just hope the "big one" hits after we're dead?

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If there is discussion on this, be sure to honor the rules and keep it as nonpolitical as possible. :)
Cue Mrs. Reverend Lovejoy at the sound of anyone proposing any meaningful entitlement/education cut: "Won't someone PLEASE think of the children??"
 
Re: 2011 U.S. Budget Cut in Perspective

The REAL question here is... what are the rest of the Countries in the World going to do? I really don't want to know the answer to that question.

I feel a bit "short" in regards to my share of the debt.....I wonder if one of the Wall Street Bankers will lend me some of their bonus money?

Hammer

"Turn the lights out when you're done."
 
Re: 2011 U.S. Budget Cut in Perspective

Are you up for a reasonable discussion?
Or should I label it as I see it?

Troll
 
Re: 2011 U.S. Budget Cut in Perspective

What friggin rulz...?

It's actually worse than that... The congress and WH have not passed a budget in years. So those numbers are what a budget "would look like" if we actually had one.

The borrowing (debt) limit is a bad joke. Every time they approach it they just increase it, like they have every other time before now (and this time too). The only difference this time that we can be remotely optimistic about, is that instead of the typical rubber stamp increase of times past, this time they at least pretended to go through the motions of taking it seriously. But guess what... if the limit was actually a limit, you wouldn't wait until you bump up against it to review and change it... you would manage your spending so you don't bump into it. More correctly that is a debt target that they aim for and hit every damn time.

========
For some more perspective, the total debt divided by our total population is a scary $45k or so. This is not per family or household, but per person, so the per family or per breadwinner debt is closer to your $150k or more (coincidence?). We owe this money! This is real debt that we are obligated to pay back. I wonder if the illegal immigrants would be so desirous of signing up for their fair share of this? I grow weary of this Ponzi scheme - chain letter mentality that because we could always borrow easily in the past we can always continue to. Some day the spigot will run dry (a debt downgrade is expected soon).

There are valid times and reasons for countries to have a short term deficit budget (like wars and economic down turns). So I don't embrace a strict balanced budget, but a reasonably hard debt limit as a percentage of GDP makes a lot of sense (to me). Also just like the pro forma household can justify some amount of long term borrowing, our government can justify that too, but in most cases this is better done at the local level where debt and debt obligation is more correlated. Federal spending in local districts is routinely treated like spending OPM, and what they masquerade as investments are embarrassing.

We are approaching the 10 year anniversary of this "war against terrorism" with no big picture victory lap in sight (while I expect some redefinition of goals soon to try to justify winding down). IMO this military expenditure should have been included in the regular budget, after the first few years or so. It is probably responsible for $1T of the debt (and we haven't stopped spending yet). Perhaps scarier than that are the expansion of social program entitlements justified with funny accounting and funnier projections. The same guys who projected that unemployment would rise as high as 8% if they didn't go all Keynesian on us. Who knows maybe we would have bottomed out and recovered by now? I will concede that there would have been more short term pain for the beneficiaries of the government largess. Long term I'm not so sure about the total pain we will endure this way.

I am optimistic that every two years we get a few more adults elected into congress, but I almost wish we still had the original system where the federal senators were appointed by the state legislatures. I suspect this might have held some of the expansion and abuse of federal power at least partially in check.

Thank you Langston for sharing this... most people don't appreciate that this is "our" debt.

I have some ideas for how we could improve things but I am trying to not be any more inflammatory than normal.

JR

Note: I deleted a much longer response that was TMI, but in short it took us years and both party's active involvement to get in this deep in a hole. We need to stop digging it deeper and rethink things.
 
Re: 2011 U.S. Budget Cut in Perspective

speech is not restricted here, but being an asshole sure as hell is.

Bennett, about a year ago a person who was going to start up his first restaurant in NYC ran an oped about the first 100 rules for his wait staff.
A total shit storm ensued. From both sides, the servers, and the customers. Both whining up a storm on how bad they were treated by the other. One server started a blog about the first 67 rules for a restaurant customer to follow.

Reading them over, I decided that over 90% of it could have been covered by, "Don't be an Asshole."

Thanks for your wonderful leadership.

Regards, Jack
 
Re: 2011 U.S. Budget Cut in Perspective

Are you up for a reasonable discussion?
Or should I label it as I see it?

Troll

Ok... I made a flippant remark about the Wall Street Bankers getting their bailout (which I was for) and bonuses (which I was NOT for)... but, that was a valid point in regards to this U.S. Budget deficit. They got money and the American people paid for it. While the Banks got bailed...other closely related sectors of our economy did not....Housing, Insurance (they only raised their rates to off-set their losses)etc...

In regards to my statement asking what the other Countries might do....It's a valid question. Are they going to continue to trade with us? Are these foreign investors that hold so much of our security, going to start selling their American Stocks, Bonds, and US treasury Bonds and Certificates? Are the Countries that are currently on the verge of bankruptcy going to be bailed out...are WE going to bail them out, absorbing their debt?

JR's response includes the Elephant in the room that no one still wants to acknowledge.... these damn Wars and "police actions". How much of our debt is from this cost alone? Combined with our loss of income taxes from outsourcing American jobs? ....with the cost of the 110+ new Federal Agencies enacted in the last 10 years? With Illegal Aliens and Legal Aliens sending home 100's of Billions of Dollars, which would normally be spent in this Country? With the International trade laws favoring everyone else but Americans?

Big American Corporations not paying any Tax...GAO (Government Accounting Office) study from 1996 to 2000 found that 61% of US based Corporations paid NO income Tax.
With Larger Corporations with assets of at least $250 Million or gross receipts of at least $50 Million....71% did not pay any Tax.

It's all going out, but, nothings coming in. What did anyone expect to happen?

What do you consider a reasonable discussion?

And why are you calling me a Troll...because you didn't like my response?

Hammer
 
Re: 2011 U.S. Budget Cut in Perspective

John Roberts said:
Thank you Langston for sharing this... most people don't appreciate that this is "our" debt.

I have some ideas for how we could improve things but I am trying to not be any more inflammatory than normal.

JR

Note: I deleted a much longer response that was TMI, but in short it took us years and both party's active involvement to get in this deep in a hole. We need to stop digging it deeper and rethink things.
RE: "our debt"; Yes, and that the government is us also. So often there is such a disconnect (especially on the national level) that it is hard to think of them in such terms.

JR, as you might have surmised by now, you and I don't see eye to eye on a lot of this topic. ;-)
So thanks for a good response. Fortunately time is short, so I have to make a short response. (I heard that)

I think my basic philosophy could be summed up as right now as:
I am against privatized gains, and socialized losses.

Regards, Jack
 
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Re: 2011 U.S. Budget Cut in Perspective

I don't consider Langston's post as trolling because it actually presents the national debt in a fashion that is accessible to the many who haven't bothered to do the math. In fact after all the political posturing the current change is more like a rounding error (the debt rating agencies wanted to see about $3T reduction), while they have put a process in place that promises to do more, "promises" are cheap in D.C. Simpson-Boles already laid out a bi-partisan roadmap that has been roundly ignored. http://www.fiscalcommission.gov/sit...files/documents/TheMomentofTruth12_1_2010.pdf

One could argue that the politicians who elevated this debt limit discussion to a gloom and doom "end of the world as we know it" death-match are the trolls but they are just doing what politicians do to gain and hold the spot light. Regrettably, threatening to not increase the debt limit at the 11th hour is tantamount to arguing about the restaurant bill after you've already finished eating the meal, but I've come to expect that and less from the political class.

Even Hammer's question while couched as a joke is serious. Europe is in the middle of a sovereign debt crisis melt down, far worse than ours (a common currency but independent borrowing). Italy just promised EU lenders to bring their budget into balance within a year or two, and their legislature is cutting their normal euro length vacation short this year to work on the details. The big difference between us and a few Euro zone countries is that we are worried about where we could end up, and they are worried about Monday morning.

I appreciate that some may see my words as partisan but i am not parroting anybody else's words or thoughts than my own. I hold both parties responsible for our ugly situation and even the Libertarians (and or Tea Party) seem unrealistic about providing practical solutions. Of course intent does not excuse the perception I have created. I consider this an important topic that needs more awareness and for people to understand the consequences of not rigorously investigating and IMO changing our trajectory.

They say in a card game if you can't tell who the patsy is, "YOU ARE THE PATSY". I guess if I can't tell who the asshole is I am the asshole. :)

JR
 
Re: 2011 U.S. Budget Cut in Perspective

Ok... I made a flippant remark about the Wall Street Bankers getting their bailout (which I was for) and bonuses (which I was NOT for)... but, that was a valid point in regards to this U.S. Budget deficit. They got money and the American people paid for it. While the Banks got bailed...other closely related sectors of our economy did not....Housing, Insurance (they only raised their rates to off-set their losses)etc...
Not to quibble that is not quite the entire story.

Yes, after Lehman was allowed to fail, the quickly spreading international fear and uncertainty suggested a bail out was in everybody's interest. It is arguable that more pain could have been prevented by a cheaper bailout of Lehman, while one could alternately argue the merit of letting more of them fail.

I'm surprised that I need to remind you that the auto industry received a bunch of taxpayer love.

The attempts to "help" the people who purchased home(s) they couldn't afford to ever pay for (on a gamble they would keep going up), has only prevented that market from clearing, bottoming , and recovering. Unfortunately all the "help" will only prevent a small fraction of those who gambled unwisely on housing, from reality. One good friend of mine despite my repeated warnings, ended up losing his several years of real estate gains in a final short sale. "Trust me I know what I'm doing". If i was less of a friend I would rub that in.
In regards to my statement asking what the other Countries might do....It's a valid question. Are they going to continue to trade with us? Are these foreign investors that hold so much of our security, going to start selling their American Stocks, Bonds, and US treasury Bonds and Certificates? Are the Countries that are currently on the verge of bankruptcy going to be bailed out...are WE going to bail them out, absorbing their debt?
If look behind the curtain at the wall street bailout, and lot of taxpayer money went to european banks and financial institutions, so we've been in the same bed for a long time.

This is not unlike the 30's when everybody tries to beggar thy neighbor by making their currency cheaper to gain world trade. Part of this weeks fun news from Europe who had already started increasing interest rates (that "should" make their currency relatively stronger) just pulled an about face and reversed some increases. The Euro zone has a simpler one target inflation mandate for monetary policy (vs our inflation and employment0. However they are learning the perils of a single monetary policy with independent per country budget/debt discipline.

The real concern is will foreigners stop buying american debt and at the moment China would love too, but we're the least ugly girl at the prom so while they try to diversify we are still high on their dance card.

Trade is touchy subject, the congress still hasn't certified trade deals with Columbia, So, Korea, and (?) that were negotiated under the last administration. trade deals, mean more US jobs, but apparently this hasn't been much of a priority.
JR's response includes the Elephant in the room that no one still wants to acknowledge.... these damn Wars and "police actions". How much of our debt is from this cost alone?
I did estimate roughly $1T to post 9/11 adventures, while the total military budget is more and there is much not immediately military spending, like aid to Pakistan that was "strategic" for the region.

I already argued that all of the military spending needs to be in the budget, but even turning more neutral that Switzerland would not balance our budget.
Combined with our loss of income taxes from outsourcing American jobs?
This is another oversimplification. No country maintains their personal standard of living by ignoring productivity enhancements and best use of capital. If we prevent companies like Boeing from expanding into more business friendly states, they will expand into more business friendly countries. We truly need to unleash the growth engine that was American small business. The current climate is doing the opposite.

Ironically there was just a news release about Hon Hai (remember them? the huge CM in China that builds Apple and Sony poop). They report that they are going to buy 1 million robots... to reduce manufacturing cost. hmmmm :)
....with the cost of the 110+ new Federal Agencies enacted in the last 10 years?
New agencies are just the tip of the iceberg showing above water. The larger damage is from their friction and damping effect on business activity and economic growth.

We need to make the existing agencies work better. I believe the oversight of trading on wall street is still a little too friendly to computer flash traders and hedge funds, not friendly enough to small investors, who are bled dry by a thousand cuts.
With Illegal Aliens and Legal Aliens sending home 100's of Billions of Dollars, which would normally be spent in this Country?
This is another one of those problems we could solve in an afternoon if we really wanted to. there are partisan interests on both sides of this preventing a honest resolution. I am more concerned about mexico turning into a narco state. and we are more than a little complicit (as a customer) for the drugs, and as supplier of the fire power used by the cartels.
With the International trade laws favoring everyone else but Americans?
This is nothing new, and we have prospered (so far) despite this... a good start is approving Columbian and S. Korea FT agreements.
Big American Corporations not paying any Tax...GAO (Government Accounting Office) study from 1996 to 2000 found that 61% of US based Corporations paid NO income Tax.
With Larger Corporations with assets of at least $250 Million or gross receipts of at least $50 Million....71% did not pay any Tax.
Some well parsed stats, (lies, damn lies, and statistics). I see your rant and reply, hell yes big companies need to pay more taxes. i will accept your numbers for this discussion. The reality is nominal US corporate tax rates are still too high, so what we need to do is start eliminating all the many loopholes used by the large and powerful that have outlived their benefit to the economy, so we can reduce nominal tax rates while getting even more revenue. As it sits right now, small business is getting hosed again because they actually pay the high tax rates. Big business is not evil, they are just better capable of working the system. Fix the damn system that makes it so easy for them to game the taxes. All this green job nonsense is creating new different recipients of government (taxpayer) love.
It's all going out, but, nothings coming in. What did anyone expect to happen?
world peace?
What do you consider a reasonable discussion?
This is a good start...
 
Re: 2011 U.S. Budget Cut in Perspective

RE: "our debt"; Yes, and that the government is us also. So often there is such a disconnect (especially on the national level) that it is hard to think of them in such terms.

JR, as you might have surmised by now, you and I don't see eye to eye on a lot of this topic. ;-)
So thanks for a good response. Fortunately time is short, so I have to make a short response. (I heard that)

I think my basic philosophy could be summed up as right now as:
I am against privatized gains, and socialized losses.

Regards, Jack

And who exactly is for that philosophy (cliche?)? Robin Hood's evil twin :). Surely if you don't support that clever pejorative, then somebody else must? We don't see eye to eye? Hmm, but I don't support "socialized" anything. I thought I was clear about that.

The government has their hands on powerful levers for shifting wealth around. Unfortunately this government "midas touch" destroys a fraction of everything they touch (not unlike the old fable), so we always end up with a smaller pie. This is a less than zero sum gain.

I will concede that there are demographic wealth shifts that do not look good, but don't blame the wealthy for for their success at negotiating the new global economy. Everybody needs to pedal faster (or work smarter) to just stand still as more developing countries join the competition. The solution IMO is not to strong arm business to be less competitive, but come up with a reason for them to create jobs... I don't even look to big business for any significant help... Small business is tomorrow's big business. Today's big business are dinosaurs, some already on life support from their friends in DC.

JR
 
Re: 2011 U.S. Budget Cut in Perspective

Ok... I made a flippant remark about the Wall Street Bankers getting their bailout (which I was for) and bonuses (which I was NOT for)... but, that was a valid point in regards to this U.S. Budget deficit. They got money and the American people paid for it. While the Banks got bailed...other closely related sectors of our economy did not....Housing, Insurance (they only raised their rates to off-set their losses)etc...


What do you consider a reasonable discussion?

And why are you calling me a Troll...because you didn't like my response?

Hammer

Hey Hammer,
Sorry, again, my quote thingy was not working. I just happened to post after you did. This happens.
I get worked up, start crafting a reply. And in this case, it seemed pointless. So my remark was to the OP.
But did not know you had posted in between.
I thought the original post was a troll. A gross oversimplification, and partisan to boot. (Despite the disclaimer.)

It was JR's post that seemed worth responding to. And he seems to be responding in much less partisan fashion than usual, so right arm.

And JR, even when you do go off on partisan rants, at least you stick to the basics, and your beliefs, and don't go off on the baseless attacks. So, you are not an asshole, just generally wrong! (Hmmm, what kind of smarmy emoticon do I put behind a not so passive aggressive statement like that?) (Is there a neener neener one to come down to the level I sunk with that statement?)

Regards, Jack
 
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Re: 2011 U.S. Budget Cut in Perspective

Hello JR,

While you and I agree on many (if not most) of the issues, we still have disagreements on how to get'er done.

I believe that the Military spending, Nation rebuilding (infrastructure failed projects and stolen money) and the 110+ new agencies have accounted for over 1/3 of our yearly budget. (woes) The Feds don't EVEN KNOW how much money is spent by the CIA, NSA and the DHS. The Billions worth of American $100. bills airlifted to Iraq have never been accounted for....no one ever bothered to document Serial numbers or Series numbers.

In regards to Illegal Aliens.... we need to know exactly who is coming into our Country and for what reason. There are already laws on the books covering immigration and work visas. Politicians from both sides (as you've stated) need to drop this crap of them favoring for votes. These Politicians swear an oath to the Constitution and the Laws of the United States...they are all traitors. If they don't like the Law, then, they should change it.

While the Economists say the future of American business may be in the hands of smaller companies, it is almost impossible for most Companies to expand through bank funding, or even get start-up loans to develop new products or services.

We've become a Nation of "Red Tape", "Career Politicians", Laws that are ignored, planned ignorance, and rights that are trampled. We need accountability from our Politicians and our Companies' CEOs.

I used to live in a city that had seven, living, retired Police Chiefs. Twenty of years service on the force was the requirement to retire. Some are being paid over DOUBLE what their working salaries were. I repeat...Double their working salaries. Today....one or two are not even old enough to collect their Social Security Pension.

These insider, sweet deals need to go away. CEOs should be accountable for their Companies, not just collecting a huge paycheck.

Hammer



Hammer
 
Re: 2011 U.S. Budget Cut in Perspective

It should be clear to all observers by now, that we are in the midst of a global upheaval the likes of which humanity has never seen. Even an average country has more wealth and more power than the entirety of the world from ages past, to say nothing of the so called "super powers". What we are witnessing is a fundamental restructuring of the human existence. The metrics by which we have measured success in the past, namely wealth and power, are fundamentally flawed and are in the process of "being iron out".

The idea and core concept of America will survive. Whether the United Stated of America as incorporated in the Constitution will survive is another matter that only time will determine. Our greatest enemy is not a union of socialist republics, or eastern empires, or foreign nationals climbing our boarders, or fundamentalist terror organizations; rather our greatest enemy is ourselves. If this Country fails, it will be because it tore itself apart from the inside out. And yet, I think the chances of that happening are remote, at best. But, the longer we go on bickering about irrelevant partisan differences, the worse the chances are that this county as it exists now will survive.
 
Re: 2011 U.S. Budget Cut in Perspective

I really fear for the future of our country. Both sides are beholden to special interests that pressure our elected officials not to cut this program or that. I believe the gang of 6 actually had some good ideas as did the Simpson Bowles Commission. But both groups recommendations were ignored.What we really need now is leadership which unfotuantely is lacking on both sides..
 
Re: 2011 U.S. Budget Cut in Perspective

It should be clear to all observers by now, that we are in the midst of a global upheaval the likes of which humanity has never seen. Even an average country has more wealth and more power than the entirety of the world from ages past, to say nothing of the so called "super powers". What we are witnessing is a fundamental restructuring of the human existence. The metrics by which we have measured success in the past, namely wealth and power, are fundamentally flawed and are in the process of "being iron out".

The idea and core concept of America will survive. Whether the United Stated of America as incorporated in the Constitution will survive is another matter that only time will determine. Our greatest enemy is not a union of socialist republics, or eastern empires, or foreign nationals climbing our boarders, or fundamentalist terror organizations; rather our greatest enemy is ourselves. If this Country fails, it will be because it tore itself apart from the inside out. And yet, I think the chances of that happening are remote, at best. But, the longer we go on bickering about irrelevant partisan differences, the worse the chances are that this county as it exists now will survive.

The world will survive this crisis too. If you think about it, it's not like some pandemic killing billions of people... We'll be uncomfortable for a while but get through this.

The recent development that I am encouraged about is more regular americans who would normally only pay passing attention to politics every 4 years, are now paying attention full time, and actually voting every two years, mainly because they don't like what they see.

I don't see just partisan bickering, but a third voice mainly from libertarian and tea party types arguing in defense of the constitution, often at odds with both established parties (while they do seem a little more comfortable caucusing with the right).

Too many people are looking to government for what they can get from it... The government doesn't have it's own wealth. Everything it gives away it first took from us, or borrowed in our name.

Like pogo said, "we have met the enemy and he is us".

JR
 
Another First

Standard & Poor's is convinced that the children will continue to party for the next two years at least and unconvinced the parents are going to do anything about it.

From the report card sent home yesterday with little Johnny:

"The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years if we see that less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case."
 
Re: 2011 U.S. Budget Cut in Perspective

Perhaps, but I'd settle for politicians that pay more attention to the voters they are supposed to represent than party leaders. See also: false dichotomy.

I agree...
The problem with attaining honest politicians that vote the choices of their constituents is that:

These Bills are too long, and include too many other added nonsense articles. (The Politicians don't read the Bills they're voting on)
Their next term is too dependent on Corporate and Special Interest Campaign contributions. Corporations should NOT have a vote... Screw the Supreme Court. It is "by the People, for the People"...not,..... for Corporate interests.
The Political parties spend too much time posture-ing and Marketing for their next Candidates for the next Elections
The terms of office need to be lengthed to six years for both the House and the Senate.
There should be dollar limits to Campaign spending.

Hammer