Neodymium

L

Leland Crooks

Freshman
Mar 1, 2011
58
0
0
Kansas
www.speakerhardware.com
I figure everybody here has heard this, but Neo prices spiked yesterday. The industry as a whole is getting big increases in the cost of Neo drivers. Availability at some point may become a problem.

It will be a couple of years before local mines can come back on line. The rare earths are here in quantity, but all the mines shut down because the Chinese just killed the market. Now they're reaping the rewards of practically being a monopoly.
 
Re: Neodymium

The Chinese have invested heavily in stockpiling rare earth metals, and many others not rare but now scarce. I don't know if this was monopolistic intent or just good industrial policy (for them) and fair use of all their excess dollars.

The world mining industry has responded to bring more capacity on line, but this will take years.

I read a piece a few months ago about one of the electric car makers investigating electro-magnets to replace the rare earth permanent magnets in some of the big electric motors. But that will still take copper, and iron, and.... not to mention that electric cars probably wouldn't exist without subsidies.

There have been significant rare earth deposits discovered in Afghanistan, but they are too busy embracing primitive ways and old fights, to notice. It would be nice to have another national industry besides poppies and heroin.

JR
 
Re: Neodymium

An economist might argue that the massive liquidity expansion (quantitative easing here and low central bank interest rates around) could lead to a hard commodities bubble as people expect price inflation. We have seen hoarding in several commodities and this will continue as long as it is profitable to the hoarders.

There are other non-monetary events that also put upward pressure on some commodities. Oil,,, for the obvious example that is dominated by a fear/uncertainty premium. A little noticed (in the press) cocoa supply disruption in the Ivory Coast, surrounding a recent election, where the incumbent refuses to cede power could get serious. For now the new guy has prevented cocoa exports to defund the old guy, but if the cocoa sitting in warehouses sits too long it will rot and be worthless. Hershey already raised their prices.

There is an old left handed salutation, "may you live in interesting times". I think we are getting those interesting times...

JR
 
Re: Neodymium

Hey John, have you read Fareed Zakaria's excellent "The Post American World"? He pretty much calls it. The rise of the rest, competition for scarce resources. We've neglected developing or stopped exploiting our existing resources because it was so cheap to import. Globalization Hah! Trade wars are on the horizon.

We do live in interesting times.
 
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