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The Basement
running commentary on middle east policy and news.
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<blockquote data-quote="John Roberts" data-source="post: 49092" data-attributes="member: 126"><p>Re: running commentary on middle east policy and news.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Of course,,, We still have troops in Germany, been there in some number since WWII but Germany is not some little America. It's 100% German, but with a sharp U-turn back from their flirtation with Naziism. </p><p></p><p>I've already attempted to cite the recent history of Afghanistan. We didn't initially invade or attempt to remove the Taliban, only stop them from harboring/sheltering Al kaieda. This plays into the all too easy theme that all our problems are self precipitated, and if we just left them alone everything would be wonderful. </p><p></p><p>I also suspect a closer inspection of the taliban rule in recent years, reveals such a distasteful picture of local governance that even the liberals don't wish that on anybody. Of course after we leave the Afghans will still have a choice, follow the Taliban idea of strict religious life or die, the only alternative for infidels. </p><p></p><p><strong>[edit]</strong> In a related news item, the Afghanistan government has announced cut backs in their current support for women's rights, education, etc. in anticipation of negotiations with the rising Taliban power base, since the Taliban insist on women being covered and never alone in public, and completely subservient to men, without basic rights. </p><p></p><p>Not exactly an unintended consequence, more like an intended policy, later abandoned for short term political gain back home. IMO this will never get the consideration it deserves from a low attention span public, wound up by political operatives to fret about free contraceptives. <strong>[/edit] </strong></p><p></p><p>I recall a couple years ago a moderate legislator in Pakistan who was pushing back against incorporating strict religious law into the secular legislative cannon. He was killed. The efficient and highly effective solution for resolving religious differences in the region. Machiavelli would be proud. </p><p></p><p>I doubt I will get much support for my alternate thesis, but IMO the arab spring was the confluence of several parallel events, with the toppling of Saddam and installation of a fledgling democracy in iraq, too large of an elephant in the room to ignore. </p><p></p><p>Iraq is a thorn in the side of the conservative religious leadership in Iran, they can't ignore. There are regular religious pilgrimages of Iranian citizens into Iraq to visit holy sites, and they return back to Iran, were it is unlikey they don't notice the difference between their two governments.</p><p>----</p><p>Another recent change that is supporting these popular movements is the rise of wireless social media, that allows relatively free flow of images and dissent. Despite this, when internal dissent lacks active outside support from the west we get a slaughter like in Syria today, where Assad kills and squashes dissenters, as compared to Libya were the opposition received aid and military support from the west. </p><p></p><p>Avoid wishful thinking and simple too-easy to be true answers. The dictators in the region have a lot of experience at suppressing their own people. They even buy technology from the west to monitor their internet activity. ugly fact. </p><p></p><p>The support from China and soviets to block western UN support and intervention in the region will eventually come back to haunt them, but in the short term they don't mind. </p><p></p><p></p><p>True.. all the simple easy answers are wrong (IMO).. but people often want to hear and believe the simple answers, precisely because they are easy and don't involve personal sacrifice. Think of all the free shit we can get from government after we wind down the military. :-(</p><p></p><p>I am not a fan of casual regime change, this is arbitrary and no better than the original dictatorships. While I support spreading and supporting the natural desire for democracy and self rule. There seems to be some debate whether free choice is a natural intrinsic desire, or just outside agitation by western troublemakers. Opinion vary, and can see how from the dictator's perspective this is likely to be viewed negatively. </p><p></p><p>JR</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="John Roberts, post: 49092, member: 126"] Re: running commentary on middle east policy and news. Of course,,, We still have troops in Germany, been there in some number since WWII but Germany is not some little America. It's 100% German, but with a sharp U-turn back from their flirtation with Naziism. I've already attempted to cite the recent history of Afghanistan. We didn't initially invade or attempt to remove the Taliban, only stop them from harboring/sheltering Al kaieda. This plays into the all too easy theme that all our problems are self precipitated, and if we just left them alone everything would be wonderful. I also suspect a closer inspection of the taliban rule in recent years, reveals such a distasteful picture of local governance that even the liberals don't wish that on anybody. Of course after we leave the Afghans will still have a choice, follow the Taliban idea of strict religious life or die, the only alternative for infidels. [b][edit][/b] In a related news item, the Afghanistan government has announced cut backs in their current support for women's rights, education, etc. in anticipation of negotiations with the rising Taliban power base, since the Taliban insist on women being covered and never alone in public, and completely subservient to men, without basic rights. Not exactly an unintended consequence, more like an intended policy, later abandoned for short term political gain back home. IMO this will never get the consideration it deserves from a low attention span public, wound up by political operatives to fret about free contraceptives. [b][/edit] [/b] I recall a couple years ago a moderate legislator in Pakistan who was pushing back against incorporating strict religious law into the secular legislative cannon. He was killed. The efficient and highly effective solution for resolving religious differences in the region. Machiavelli would be proud. I doubt I will get much support for my alternate thesis, but IMO the arab spring was the confluence of several parallel events, with the toppling of Saddam and installation of a fledgling democracy in iraq, too large of an elephant in the room to ignore. Iraq is a thorn in the side of the conservative religious leadership in Iran, they can't ignore. There are regular religious pilgrimages of Iranian citizens into Iraq to visit holy sites, and they return back to Iran, were it is unlikey they don't notice the difference between their two governments. ---- Another recent change that is supporting these popular movements is the rise of wireless social media, that allows relatively free flow of images and dissent. Despite this, when internal dissent lacks active outside support from the west we get a slaughter like in Syria today, where Assad kills and squashes dissenters, as compared to Libya were the opposition received aid and military support from the west. Avoid wishful thinking and simple too-easy to be true answers. The dictators in the region have a lot of experience at suppressing their own people. They even buy technology from the west to monitor their internet activity. ugly fact. The support from China and soviets to block western UN support and intervention in the region will eventually come back to haunt them, but in the short term they don't mind. True.. all the simple easy answers are wrong (IMO).. but people often want to hear and believe the simple answers, precisely because they are easy and don't involve personal sacrifice. Think of all the free shit we can get from government after we wind down the military. :-( I am not a fan of casual regime change, this is arbitrary and no better than the original dictatorships. While I support spreading and supporting the natural desire for democracy and self rule. There seems to be some debate whether free choice is a natural intrinsic desire, or just outside agitation by western troublemakers. Opinion vary, and can see how from the dictator's perspective this is likely to be viewed negatively. JR [/QUOTE]
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