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The Basement
running commentary on middle east policy and news.
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<blockquote data-quote="John Roberts" data-source="post: 49128" data-attributes="member: 126"><p>Re: running commentary on middle east policy and news.</p><p></p><p>Wow,,, my statement was a hypothetical, but there's no punctuation mark for that. It's interesting to see how others view this. </p><p></p><p>There is no scenario where we would invade Iran, "destroy their infrastructure, commerce, and food producing ability". The recent history of Iran is stereotypical for much of the region. We don't have to go back that far in history, to find cities like Cairo, Baghdad, Beruit, Tripoli, as cosmopolitan, wealthy, and with rule of law. The revolution in Iran ('79?) or so, reversed the path of increasing education, women's rights, art and culture. I suspect there are older professional Iranians who remember the pre-revolutiony Iran with more than just tolerance for the west. For all the Shah's faults real and imagined, they were truly better days for them in so many ways.</p><p></p><p>The current disagreement between US and Israel about Iran is about where to draw the line in the sand, regarding their nuclear weapons development progress. Not only do they have different capability in the bunker buster category needed to surgically reach into heavily fortified facilities, there is a key difference between us and Israel regarding Iran. I am reminded of the joke about the chicken and hog"s involvement with ham and eggs. The chicken was involved, but the hog was fully committed. Like the hog, Israel is fully committed to preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, since they have as much as promised to make Tel Aviv glow in the dark, Israel is committed to resolving this and can't afford failure like we apparently can. </p><p></p><p>Any discussion of military action inside Iran would be surgical strikes to set back the nuclear weapons program, like have already been carried out in other middle eastern nations when surreptitious nuclear programs were undertaken by rouge governments. Iran still claims a peaceful program, while routinely demonstrating progress with their delivery system's range. </p><p></p><p>I don't believe the iranian public is in favor of a war with Israel, while the leadership, is in favor of promoting any external enemy that can rally support behind them. It seems the revolution after several decades doesn't have the Shah to rally around any more, so must create new modern enemies of the state. </p><p></p><p>Finally, I am not happy with how much money we spend around the world on our military presence, while this is not IMO idle adventure. The rest of the free world needs to step up and pay their share for the security we provide them. Few appreciate how much money WE spent on Libya. That said inspection of the budget impact of all this, the elephant in that room is the unfunded entitlement spending, that has ramped up in recent years. Economists point out that simply taxing the wealthy, or even raising the rates on us all, can never raise more than X percent of the GDP, I don't recall the exact number but IIRC it's in the 20's of percent. Raising taxes higher suppresses economic growth, like lower taxes boosts economic growth, and generates more tax revenue from that growth, but never more than the predicted economic percentage of GDP. So if you want more tax revenue THE ONLY WAY to get it is to promote economic growth. </p><p></p><p>Spending more than we can fund is a simple recipe for a greek like malaise, where we can not borrow enough to spend too much. Over regulation and the government hand picking winners diverts capital from more productive sectors and hurts economic growth. </p><p></p><p>We need to be adult about our appetite for spending, and reject the magical thinking that is going around, that all we have to do is get the wealthy to pay their fair share. There isn't enough wealthy to ever cover the tab they are running up. The results of their approach should be evident to anybody paying attention by now. </p><p></p><p>Of course I may be wrong.... opinions certainly vary. </p><p></p><p>JR</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="John Roberts, post: 49128, member: 126"] Re: running commentary on middle east policy and news. Wow,,, my statement was a hypothetical, but there's no punctuation mark for that. It's interesting to see how others view this. There is no scenario where we would invade Iran, "destroy their infrastructure, commerce, and food producing ability". The recent history of Iran is stereotypical for much of the region. We don't have to go back that far in history, to find cities like Cairo, Baghdad, Beruit, Tripoli, as cosmopolitan, wealthy, and with rule of law. The revolution in Iran ('79?) or so, reversed the path of increasing education, women's rights, art and culture. I suspect there are older professional Iranians who remember the pre-revolutiony Iran with more than just tolerance for the west. For all the Shah's faults real and imagined, they were truly better days for them in so many ways. The current disagreement between US and Israel about Iran is about where to draw the line in the sand, regarding their nuclear weapons development progress. Not only do they have different capability in the bunker buster category needed to surgically reach into heavily fortified facilities, there is a key difference between us and Israel regarding Iran. I am reminded of the joke about the chicken and hog"s involvement with ham and eggs. The chicken was involved, but the hog was fully committed. Like the hog, Israel is fully committed to preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, since they have as much as promised to make Tel Aviv glow in the dark, Israel is committed to resolving this and can't afford failure like we apparently can. Any discussion of military action inside Iran would be surgical strikes to set back the nuclear weapons program, like have already been carried out in other middle eastern nations when surreptitious nuclear programs were undertaken by rouge governments. Iran still claims a peaceful program, while routinely demonstrating progress with their delivery system's range. I don't believe the iranian public is in favor of a war with Israel, while the leadership, is in favor of promoting any external enemy that can rally support behind them. It seems the revolution after several decades doesn't have the Shah to rally around any more, so must create new modern enemies of the state. Finally, I am not happy with how much money we spend around the world on our military presence, while this is not IMO idle adventure. The rest of the free world needs to step up and pay their share for the security we provide them. Few appreciate how much money WE spent on Libya. That said inspection of the budget impact of all this, the elephant in that room is the unfunded entitlement spending, that has ramped up in recent years. Economists point out that simply taxing the wealthy, or even raising the rates on us all, can never raise more than X percent of the GDP, I don't recall the exact number but IIRC it's in the 20's of percent. Raising taxes higher suppresses economic growth, like lower taxes boosts economic growth, and generates more tax revenue from that growth, but never more than the predicted economic percentage of GDP. So if you want more tax revenue THE ONLY WAY to get it is to promote economic growth. Spending more than we can fund is a simple recipe for a greek like malaise, where we can not borrow enough to spend too much. Over regulation and the government hand picking winners diverts capital from more productive sectors and hurts economic growth. We need to be adult about our appetite for spending, and reject the magical thinking that is going around, that all we have to do is get the wealthy to pay their fair share. There isn't enough wealthy to ever cover the tab they are running up. The results of their approach should be evident to anybody paying attention by now. Of course I may be wrong.... opinions certainly vary. JR [/QUOTE]
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