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The Basement
running commentary on middle east policy and news.
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<blockquote data-quote="John Roberts" data-source="post: 49198" data-attributes="member: 126"><p>Re: running commentary on middle east policy and news.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Thank you for defining your attempts at humor, with too many posts I can't tell the flippant answers from serious. </p><p></p><p>I am pretty sure we are well past direct military engagement (aka war) in Iraq, while IMO should have kept a larger presence around a little longer to help the fledgling democracy maintain control. The three major factions in Iraq are far from a happy familiy, while they surely see the merit of making it work.. That said the Kurds in the North still believe they should be able to negotiate their own independent oil deals without Baghdad's approval or fingers in the pie. I am optimistic they will hold the shaky federation together. </p><p>====</p><p>Afghanistan didn't get redefined up to nation building until relatively recently. Our intial efforts there were just to play whack-amole with Alkaida. </p><p></p><p>Trying to maintain order across the nation so they can stand up local government and local police, is based on the thesis that after they stand up that force and local government they can maintain it. I don't see where the resources are supposed to come from to pay for that national military and police force, after we withdraw. </p><p></p><p>Once again I hope I am wrong.</p><p></p><p>Ballistic warfare with a conventional enemy would be relatively simple, but we haven't had a mission like that for the last several wars. There is nothing easy about this mission. </p><p></p><p>Stability in the region sounds good in concept, but the kind of stability leaders like Saddam and Khadaffi offer, is less than desirable to their own citizens.</p><p></p><p>IMO instability in the region is being driven by the promise of self determination that seems to be breaking out all over. </p><p></p><p>Pakistan is a long and interesting story, while I don't feel like writing the long version, and you probably don't want to read it. </p><p></p><p>For a dash of economic incentives mixed with warfare, and interesting example of unintended consequences from economic incentives is the result of how we compensated (rewarded) Pakistan's military for the appearance of helping us root out terrorism in their Northern border region. What developed is a symbiotic relationship with insurgency where if the Pakistan military were to secure complete local order, they would get less compensation from the US military. There have long been reports of their ISI (secret police) working with various shady groups. The final disposition of OBL kind of killed their golden goose. I submit that has more than a little to do with deteriorating relations, and the little detail, of how many drone attacks in Pakistan territory? Seriously I don't know how many, but a lot... While the Pakistan government may tolerate these drone attacks with a wink and a nod, the public complaints about US ignoring Pakistan sovereignty inflames the pakistani citizens, as it should. </p><p></p><p>In an somewhat bizarre news item, the Pakistan government has recently charged two of OBL's wives for entering the country illegally. I wonder who's benefit that is for?</p><p></p><p></p><p>Talk, has a poor track record in such matters. Iran is reading from the North Korea playbook, where they want to "talk" their way into a nuclear weapon, the ultimate penis extension in world affairs. The latest news is that Iran wants to talk again? They are ready to let inspectors into their recently sanitized weapons development sites. </p><p></p><p>I don't know how much longer we can afford to talk... But I'd be more concerned if I lived closer to Iran. We were working on setting up a defensive missile shield technology installed in Poland, but the soviets objected to that... go figure it was pointed away from them? </p><p></p><p>I think we are seeing the results of mainly talk (and economic sanctions) right now. I don't feel optimistic about this, but add this to the list of things I hope i'm wrong about. </p><p></p><p>JR</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="John Roberts, post: 49198, member: 126"] Re: running commentary on middle east policy and news. Thank you for defining your attempts at humor, with too many posts I can't tell the flippant answers from serious. I am pretty sure we are well past direct military engagement (aka war) in Iraq, while IMO should have kept a larger presence around a little longer to help the fledgling democracy maintain control. The three major factions in Iraq are far from a happy familiy, while they surely see the merit of making it work.. That said the Kurds in the North still believe they should be able to negotiate their own independent oil deals without Baghdad's approval or fingers in the pie. I am optimistic they will hold the shaky federation together. ==== Afghanistan didn't get redefined up to nation building until relatively recently. Our intial efforts there were just to play whack-amole with Alkaida. Trying to maintain order across the nation so they can stand up local government and local police, is based on the thesis that after they stand up that force and local government they can maintain it. I don't see where the resources are supposed to come from to pay for that national military and police force, after we withdraw. Once again I hope I am wrong. Ballistic warfare with a conventional enemy would be relatively simple, but we haven't had a mission like that for the last several wars. There is nothing easy about this mission. Stability in the region sounds good in concept, but the kind of stability leaders like Saddam and Khadaffi offer, is less than desirable to their own citizens. IMO instability in the region is being driven by the promise of self determination that seems to be breaking out all over. Pakistan is a long and interesting story, while I don't feel like writing the long version, and you probably don't want to read it. For a dash of economic incentives mixed with warfare, and interesting example of unintended consequences from economic incentives is the result of how we compensated (rewarded) Pakistan's military for the appearance of helping us root out terrorism in their Northern border region. What developed is a symbiotic relationship with insurgency where if the Pakistan military were to secure complete local order, they would get less compensation from the US military. There have long been reports of their ISI (secret police) working with various shady groups. The final disposition of OBL kind of killed their golden goose. I submit that has more than a little to do with deteriorating relations, and the little detail, of how many drone attacks in Pakistan territory? Seriously I don't know how many, but a lot... While the Pakistan government may tolerate these drone attacks with a wink and a nod, the public complaints about US ignoring Pakistan sovereignty inflames the pakistani citizens, as it should. In an somewhat bizarre news item, the Pakistan government has recently charged two of OBL's wives for entering the country illegally. I wonder who's benefit that is for? Talk, has a poor track record in such matters. Iran is reading from the North Korea playbook, where they want to "talk" their way into a nuclear weapon, the ultimate penis extension in world affairs. The latest news is that Iran wants to talk again? They are ready to let inspectors into their recently sanitized weapons development sites. I don't know how much longer we can afford to talk... But I'd be more concerned if I lived closer to Iran. We were working on setting up a defensive missile shield technology installed in Poland, but the soviets objected to that... go figure it was pointed away from them? I think we are seeing the results of mainly talk (and economic sanctions) right now. I don't feel optimistic about this, but add this to the list of things I hope i'm wrong about. JR [/QUOTE]
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