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The Basement
running commentary on middle east policy and news.
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<blockquote data-quote="John Roberts" data-source="post: 49263" data-attributes="member: 126"><p>Re: running commentary on middle east policy and news.</p><p></p><p></p><p>It was remarkable how well they got along in some neighborhoods, even intermarrying under the oppressive rule of Saddam. Biden and others have long argued that Iraq would deteriorate into civil war and attempting a federation of the three distinct groups was pointless. I appreciate that after getting elected to VP, Biden didn't try to prove himself correct and has given them a chance to stand up, while I remain apprehensive about how much Iraq's neighbors will try to interfere. Iran (mostly Shia) has designs on the oil rich south, Syria (with a significant bathist Sunni community has provided a pretty porous border for malefactors to infiltrate, and Turkey in the north has a long running fight with the Kurdish rebels who partner with opposition elements inside Turkey (the kurds also don't get along with northern Iran).. </p><p></p><p>Iran actually sheltered the very anti-American cleric Sadr (a shia with his own militia) when things got too hot for him to remain in Iraq. He is back now and elected to the legislature to apply influence from within the system, while he still has Iran's backing which seems at cross purposes with a secular Iraqi independence. </p><p></p><p></p><p>I don't recall the full list that Powell presented to the UN but IIRC it included harboring/sheltering alkaida (there were reports of medical treatment and recuperation there), another item was Saddam promoting terrorism in the region.. I recall something like a bounty or bonus that he paid to the families of suicide bombers...giving them yet another incentive to attack western interests. Saddam pretty much ignored or circumvented every UN resolution to stop his bad behavior. All he had to do, is stop being such a bad ruler. </p><p></p><p>I prefer to focus my few remaining brain cells on finding a better path from here, not rehashing old hot buttons, ad infinitum. There was also speculation of some unfinished business from the first war with Saddam, when we made him give up Kuwait and chased him back to Iraq, then encouraged his internal opposition to stand up... We didn't support them then, because we didn't have a UN mandate to do so, and they got crushed by Saddam. </p><p></p><p>The US was a little slow to react to some other (more) serious examples of genocide (like Bosnia), and I consider Darfur an embarrassment to any thoughtful western person, but there are limits to how thin we can spread ourselves in addressing every ugly world circumstance. </p><p>-----</p><p>I am very critical of the prosecution of Iraq... Turkey denying us a path to bring armor in from the North changed the whole prosecution from a systematic clear and hold (using the armor to secure the captured areas), to the make it up as you go, quick rout using light, fast moving vehicles, but without a secure hold (a little reminiscent of the WWII Blitzkreig. Not sure how well that worked out for Hitler back then). That and a long list of mistakes (like releasing Saddam's army), resulted in a vibrant insurgency and many more deaths and destruction than it should have. Of course second guessing this stuff after the fact is way too easy and not all that useful. Afghanistan has well demonstrated how different it is from Iraq, so different lessons to learn.</p><p></p><p>JR</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="John Roberts, post: 49263, member: 126"] Re: running commentary on middle east policy and news. It was remarkable how well they got along in some neighborhoods, even intermarrying under the oppressive rule of Saddam. Biden and others have long argued that Iraq would deteriorate into civil war and attempting a federation of the three distinct groups was pointless. I appreciate that after getting elected to VP, Biden didn't try to prove himself correct and has given them a chance to stand up, while I remain apprehensive about how much Iraq's neighbors will try to interfere. Iran (mostly Shia) has designs on the oil rich south, Syria (with a significant bathist Sunni community has provided a pretty porous border for malefactors to infiltrate, and Turkey in the north has a long running fight with the Kurdish rebels who partner with opposition elements inside Turkey (the kurds also don't get along with northern Iran).. Iran actually sheltered the very anti-American cleric Sadr (a shia with his own militia) when things got too hot for him to remain in Iraq. He is back now and elected to the legislature to apply influence from within the system, while he still has Iran's backing which seems at cross purposes with a secular Iraqi independence. I don't recall the full list that Powell presented to the UN but IIRC it included harboring/sheltering alkaida (there were reports of medical treatment and recuperation there), another item was Saddam promoting terrorism in the region.. I recall something like a bounty or bonus that he paid to the families of suicide bombers...giving them yet another incentive to attack western interests. Saddam pretty much ignored or circumvented every UN resolution to stop his bad behavior. All he had to do, is stop being such a bad ruler. I prefer to focus my few remaining brain cells on finding a better path from here, not rehashing old hot buttons, ad infinitum. There was also speculation of some unfinished business from the first war with Saddam, when we made him give up Kuwait and chased him back to Iraq, then encouraged his internal opposition to stand up... We didn't support them then, because we didn't have a UN mandate to do so, and they got crushed by Saddam. The US was a little slow to react to some other (more) serious examples of genocide (like Bosnia), and I consider Darfur an embarrassment to any thoughtful western person, but there are limits to how thin we can spread ourselves in addressing every ugly world circumstance. ----- I am very critical of the prosecution of Iraq... Turkey denying us a path to bring armor in from the North changed the whole prosecution from a systematic clear and hold (using the armor to secure the captured areas), to the make it up as you go, quick rout using light, fast moving vehicles, but without a secure hold (a little reminiscent of the WWII Blitzkreig. Not sure how well that worked out for Hitler back then). That and a long list of mistakes (like releasing Saddam's army), resulted in a vibrant insurgency and many more deaths and destruction than it should have. Of course second guessing this stuff after the fact is way too easy and not all that useful. Afghanistan has well demonstrated how different it is from Iraq, so different lessons to learn. JR [/QUOTE]
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