Batteries May Become Obsolete

[Andrew Broughton]

Re: Batteries May Become Obsolete

Just for clarity... the super cap if it is scalable, is just a gas tank for electricity... you still need to get the electricity from somewhere.

JR

The big difference is that there are many ways to create electricity, many of which are environmentally friendly, and you can even create it yourself if you like, no so easy with fossil fuels.

 

[Rob Timmerman]

Re: Batteries May Become Obsolete

The big difference is that there are many ways to create electricity, many of which are environmentally friendly, and you can even create it yourself if you like, no so easy with fossil fuels.

One of the big issues with most of the "renewable" energy sources (wind, solar, run-of-the-river hydro) is that the generation is intermittant and difficult to predict. This typically means that these types of generation need to be backed with either storage or dispatchable generation. If these supercaps can scale up inexpensively, that could increase the ability to use renewables. If not, well, still plenty of uses on a smaller scale.

Oh, and creating your own electricity from fossil fuels isn't particuarly difficult; many of us in this industry do it on a daily basis.

 

[John Roberts]

Re: Batteries May Become Obsolete

The big difference is that there are many ways to create electricity, many of which are environmentally friendly, and you can even create it yourself if you like, no so easy with fossil fuels.

There is no dispute about that, however gross distortions of economic reality when politicians inject their fat thumbs into what should be free market decisions.

Electricity is wonderful, and even better if we ever perfect energy storage that approaches a simple steel gas tank for energy density, reliability (ask boeing about energy dense batteries), and cost.

Cost is always the elephant in the room that politicians seem to ignore. Trade offs in efficiency for a small IC motor vs a large land based turbine, is a trade off we freely make for the convenience and relative cost.

I congratulate the politicians for being forward thinking and trying to be proactive by draging us kicking and screaming into their vision of the future, but I don't share their particular vision, and prefer allowing the free market to decide such things which generally is more efficient. Electric cars were invented over 100 years ago, and the free market would have preferred them over fossil fuels if it made practical sense, but exactly the opposite happened. Cheap oil, killed the EV 100 years ago... and now it only barely alive with heavy government life support.

At some point in the future i expect to see EV come into their own, but not quite yet. Perhaps if fossil fuels were in decline, instead of coming out of our ears so free market forces and scarcity could bias the equation the other way. It will happen just not in my lifetime.

JR

PS: I huge increase in the gas tax would help increase EV attractiveness, while far from allowing an unfettered free market decision. I am surprised that didn't happen already as Steve Chu advocated for higher prices to promote "green" technology.

 

[John Roberts]

Re: Batteries May Become Obsolete

One of the big issues with most of the "renewable" energy sources (wind, solar, run-of-the-river hydro) is that the generation is intermittant and difficult to predict. This typically means that these types of generation need to be backed with either storage or dispatchable generation. If these supercaps can scale up inexpensively, that could increase the ability to use renewables. If not, well, still plenty of uses on a smaller scale.

Oh, and creating your own electricity from fossil fuels isn't particuarly difficult; many of us in this industry do it on a daily basis.

You can predict wind/solar energy generation in the average or long term, just not the short term so you end up having to build over capacity just to insure adequate stable supply. There is no question that there are huge amounts of energy not captured from renewable sources, but even lower hanging fruit is the energy we routinely waste with leaky/under-insulated homes, etc.

To bring this back on topic, yes a super-cap/super-battery would be very useful along with loss-less transmission (super-conductors).

The government should be spending our tax dollars on research to perfect these actually useful things, and not subsidizing market choices to support technology that isn't ready for prime time yet.

JR

PS Note wind-mills are even older than electric cars.

PPS: The solar panel industry is in need of a Harvard Business school study into how the manufacturing industry can reach maturity with over-capacity in China, while the technology is still not perfected and primarily markets are all heavily subsidized. Withdraw the subsidies, and the house of cards implodes.

 

[Per Søvik]

Re: Batteries May Become Obsolete

High density batteries will allways be a bit of a risk, just like explosives and a couple of rocket fuels, all the ingredients for a massive release of energy is present within the package. Fuels are generally quite safe because only part of the compounds needed for combustion is present. The fuel tank of a car typically contains between 1 and 2 GJ of potential energy release. Due to the low efficiency of a combustion engine, a lot less energy is required from a battery package, and assuming we need some energy to heat the car etc, a quarter of the energy seems reasonable, so we need capacities between 250 and 500 MJ to get the same full tank range. That is the equivalent of 50-100 kg of TNT, in other words not the kind of uncontrolled instantanious energy release you want to happen.

While I honestly think that the safety issues will be overcome and batteries will become reliable, I also imagine that low cost batteries will cause a few serious accidents and deaths even when the technology exists to make safe superdensity batteries.

If graphene really is the holy grail, and batteries and solar cells are revolutionized, it will definitely be the last nail in the coffin for the solar cell segment of the the silicon wafer industry, but it might be the catalyst of a bright future for a energy hungry world.

Incidentally, the energy market might be an area where free market is doing more harm than good because the more freedom and better worldwide distribution you get, the higher is the demand, something that jacks up the prices and hurts both industry and households and only benefits those who profits from the energy market.

PS: One of the best ways of storing energy is to pump water up to a high reservoir and use a turbine to produce electricity from that reservoir. At our local power plant, a variation on that theme was just finalized. Our main reservoir is at 1000m, but some of the catchment area supplies a reservoir at 900m. To utilize the energy of the water in the lower reservoir, the water is pumped to the 1000m reservoir, both storing energy (the 100m elevation) and getting a ten fold return on the stored energy (the 1000m drop)

 

[John Roberts]

Re: Batteries May Become Obsolete

High density batteries will allways be a bit of a risk, just like explosives and a couple of rocket fuels, all the ingredients for a massive release of energy is present within the package. Fuels are generally quite safe because only part of the compounds needed for combustion is present. The fuel tank of a car typically contains between 1 and 2 GJ of potential energy release. Due to the low efficiency of a combustion engine, a lot less energy is required from a battery package, and assuming we need some energy to heat the car etc, a quarter of the energy seems reasonable, so we need capacities between 250 and 500 MJ to get the same full tank range. That is the equivalent of 50-100 kg of TNT, in other words not the kind of uncontrolled instantanious energy release you want to happen.

Yup, super-cap, super-battery, gas tank, sudden release of energy undesirable.

While I honestly think that the safety issues will be overcome and batteries will become reliable, I also imagine that low cost batteries will cause a few serious accidents and deaths even when the technology exists to make safe superdensity batteries.

yup, death happens, it is remarkable how much death is all around. Part of life.

If graphene really is the holy grail, and batteries and solar cells are revolutionized, it will definitely be the last nail in the coffin for the solar cell segment of the the silicon wafer industry, but it might be the catalyst of a bright future for a energy hungry world.

Not sure I follow does graphene make solar cells too?

Incidentally, the energy market might be an area where free market is doing more harm than good because the more freedom and better worldwide distribution you get, the higher is the demand, something that jacks up the prices and hurts both industry and households and only benefits those who profits from the energy market.

I see this a little differently... the history of energy (oil, gas, et al) has been a long progression of more efficient prospecting and extraction technology for buried reserves. The price of oil and NG is still cheap for what it is, before taxes get added on, then it is still cheap for what it is. $100/barrel oil is more reflective of weakening currency than oil getting more expensive.

PS: One of the best ways of storing energy is to pump water up to a high reservoir and use a turbine to produce electricity from that reservoir. At our local power plant, a variation on that theme was just finalized. Our main reservoir is at 1000m, but some of the catchment area supplies a reservoir at 900m. To utilize the energy of the water in the lower reservoir, the water is pumped to the 1000m reservoir, both storing energy (the 100m elevation) and getting a ten fold return on the stored energy (the 1000m drop)

This is a mature technology, used to store off peak energy to help level load/usage.

Your 900M reservoir could pass water up to 1000m and back down again to 0m using a simple siphon, with no pump required. Pumping it up into 1000m reservoir may be simpler and you do get the energy back from lifting it up 100m, the only pumping losses are resistance in the plumbing.

JR

 

[Jack Arnott]

Re: Batteries May Become Obsolete

A more practical remedy seems private operation of toll roads. Pay as you go for what you use.
------
It is a stretch to call this (underpriced gas). "Another form of privatizing gains, and socializing losses.". In fact gasoline taxes are probably the most regressive tax hitting poor people hardest who commute to work harder than the more wealthy who barely notice gas prices. If anything it is a wealth transfer to the poor to under-tax gasoline.
JR

I agree with the first part, but I'm sure we will disagree on how to get to the true cost.

As to "Another form of privatizing gains, and socializing losses."
This is an easy one. We have a history of doing this with our natural resources.
Take three examples. Copper mines in Butte Montana, Vermiculite in Libby Montana, and Uranium in Moab Utah.
Right now we (you, me, and everyone else who pays taxes in USA) are spending billions of dollars to clean these up. There are traceable amounts of toxic chemicals that go down the Colorado River, to California, and end up in our food supply. Slowly poisoning ourselves. How do we put a price tag on that? We don't. A relatively small number of people have left all those towns with billions of dollars in their pockets, and left you and me to clean up the mess. This is what I consider, privatizing the gains, and socializing the losses.

And, it is going on again, right now with fracking. I know, I know. You read an article in the WSJ that says it is perfectly safe. Thats fucking bullshit. I have seen first hand what it is doing to our lands, what it is doing to our people. And anybody has to have their head in the sand to not see what it is doing to our air and water. Yes, CNG burns relatively clean. But the rest of the process stinks. If we had to pay for all the medical bills, land reclamation, water clean up, a better process to not pollute the air, (end around the regulations that every other energy source has to follow, Happy Birthday Halliburton, thank you very much Dick Cheney), all of those things up front, then we would think harder about how much energy we would be using. When we had that big spike in gas prices the last year of W's term, there was a noticeable change in driving habits around here. So, change can happen, if the right incentive is there.

But no, we want to use more, and pay less. Until the bill comes due, and we all have to clean it up, with our tax money. The point is, if we pay for it up front, then we make hard choices, there is less windfall profits to leave town with, and we have more sustainability. Our system now is like a coke hound. Got to have the fix tonight. But when we wake up the next morning hung over, suddenly it was not worth it, and we won't pay our bill until a bully comes to the door with a bat. Short sighted suicide.

 

[Jack Arnott]

Re: Batteries May Become Obsolete

It seems quite hypocritical to me that newbies come to this forum, and they get the, "Its more than just buying a console and speakers. There is at least 35% in cases, cables, trunks, blah blah blah."
"You have to consider the time it takes to answer the phones, and pay bills. blah blah blah"
"Don't forget you have to have insurance" "There are hidden costs that must be covered."

And then turn around and, "cheaper cheaper cheaper" "If we don't do it on the cheap, and ruin the environment, we will ruin the economy."
Cost of doing business.

 

[Per Søvik]

Re: Batteries May Become Obsolete

Not sure I follow does graphene make solar cells too?

Yes, apparently it does everything and it does it better :razz:

I see this a little differently... the history of energy (oil, gas, et al) has been a long progression of more efficient prospecting and extraction technology for buried reserves. The price of oil and NG is still cheap for what it is, before taxes get added on, then it is still cheap for what it is. $100/barrel oil is more reflective of weakening currency than oil getting more expensive.

Yes, fossil fuel prices have not increased in real terms, but in Europe the electricity market has increasingly become a sellers market as the distribution grid has grown, and prices are to an increasing degree become inflated due to bidding (wars) going on at the energy exchange. Distributors have to meet their supply contracts, and the cost of securing the supply is passed on to the customers.
Long term contracts for low price electricity that energy hungry industries like the aluminium industry are dependant on are now impossible to come by in mainland Europe, and the struggling economies of eastern Europe are having trouble securing the electricity to keep the population from freezing in the winter.
In North America, the light metal industries, ie. the aluminium smelters and the manganese electrolyzers have shut down mainly because of energy cost, and the inability to compete with cheap energy in South America and China.
The great irony for the workers in these industries is that in order to get electricity to cook their dinner they have to outbid their employers, ensuring that they end up without a job and thus are unable to buy the dinner and the electricity to heat it.
While traditionally, these industries established themselves in areas where local energy production ensured abundant and cheap energy, the improvements in distribution have wiped out the local advantages.
There is light in the end of the tunnel though, in China the great abundance of cheap electricity have turned into a shortage as the chinese households have started using electricity, and the very recent abundance of virtually free gas for electricity production in the middle east have evaporated as the well owners have come to realize the value of the gas they used to burn off. Not only have the well owners decided to get a fair price, but the rapid growth of industries utilizing the gas has caused real competition for the gas resources. Add to that the fact that the supply of vast quantities of electricity from the new power plants have led to an explosive growth in domestic electricity use as the people of the area are now air-conditioning absolutely everything from their houses, shops and mosques to the football stadiums and the indoor ski resorts. While the increase in prices far away does the Europeans and North Americans no good in the very short term, it is likely to put our industries on a more equal footing in the longer term if we don't squander the opportunity.

This is a mature technology, used to store off peak energy to help level load/usage.

Yes, mature and reliable technology for efficient energy storage ~~:smile:

Your 900M reservoir could pass water up to 1000m and back down again to 0m using a simple siphon, with no pump required. Pumping it up into 1000m reservoir may be simpler and you do get the energy back from lifting it up 100m, the only pumping losses are resistance in the plumbing.

Actually, mechanics dictate that that wouldn't work as there is no way you can siphon water more than about 8 m above the surface of the lower reservoir before the pressure at the high point gets so low that the water starts boiling and subsequently freeze the pipe. The siphoning, even if it worked would also rob the 1000 m drop pipe of some pressure and energy at the turbine, allthough this could be managed. However, the project has gone virtually unnoticed despite being one of the largest scale energy storage projects ever undertaken.

 

[John Roberts]

Re: Batteries May Become Obsolete

Yes, apparently it does everything and it does it better :razz:

Yes, fossil fuel prices have not increased in real terms, but in Europe the electricity market has increasingly become a sellers market as the distribution grid has grown, and prices are to an increasing degree become inflated due to bidding (wars) going on at the energy exchange. Distributors have to meet their supply contracts, and the cost of securing the supply is passed on to the customers.
Long term contracts for low price electricity that energy hungry industries like the aluminium industry are dependant on are now impossible to come by in mainland Europe, and the struggling economies of eastern Europe are having trouble securing the electricity to keep the population from freezing in the winter.

While I pay far closer attention US trends than Euro zone, there is a direct cost consequence from mandating renewable energy. Germany's recent decision to abandon nuclear energy (after Japan's experience made it unpopular) is adding more straws to the camels back. I read recently that Germany is subsidizing electricity use for industry (to protect jobs) shifting even more cost burden onto consumers/taxpayers.

In the US California is the most European-like, and they are already starting to worry about future electricity shortages as they have progressively legislated increasing percentages of their electricity supply to renewable sources. If the wind don't blow and/or the sun don't shine, the air conditioner may not work all that well either.

In North America, the light metal industries, ie. the aluminium smelters and the manganese electrolyzers have shut down mainly because of energy cost, and the inability to compete with cheap energy in South America and China.

The recent surfeit of natural gas has started attracting energy dependent industries like metal smelting back to the US. Fertilizer and Chemical industries are also benefitting from cheap NG. Right now we have so much NG, with inadequate pipeline infrastructure to move it where we need it, that we are still flaring off a lot of it. Simultaneously the crony capitalists who benefit from cheap energy are setting up to block exporting NG (actually LNG) where it could realize the world market price which is much higher than domestic prices currently.

If/when we ever perfect loss-less electrical distribution, we can make it wherever the energy is, and ship it wherever needed.

A little strange sounding in light of recent trends, they just finished building a gasified coal power plant near me. After they recapture the building cost, my rate goes down almost 3%. Building a coal plant in 2013 sounds a little bizarre but they argue, the low price of NG is a short term aberration and it will rise to world market prices as delivery infrastructure is built out. (It helps that we have a huge coal seam nearby, so this is keeping the cost and related jobs local).

The great irony for the workers in these industries is that in order to get electricity to cook their dinner they have to outbid their employers, ensuring that they end up without a job and thus are unable to buy the dinner and the electricity to heat it.
While traditionally, these industries established themselves in areas where local energy production ensured abundant and cheap energy, the improvements in distribution have wiped out the local advantages.
There is light in the end of the tunnel though, in China the great abundance of cheap electricity have turned into a shortage as the chinese households have started using electricity, and the very recent abundance of virtually free gas for electricity production in the middle east have evaporated as the well owners have come to realize the value of the gas they used to burn off. Not only have the well owners decided to get a fair price, but the rapid growth of industries utilizing the gas has caused real competition for the gas resources.

Yup, fertilizer, chemical, and even aluminum have co-located to the middle east, but this is almost a mature trend that passed. In free markets capital pursues return, and it was a good use of capital to take advantage of relatively cheap energy. The middle east used to flare off NG too, may still, but the dynamic is always changing and modern technology is finding more energy in more places than the experts ever predicted.

Add to that the fact that the supply of vast quantities of electricity from the new power plants have led to an explosive growth in domestic electricity use as the people of the area are now air-conditioning absolutely everything from their houses, shops and mosques to the football stadiums and the indoor ski resorts. While the increase in prices far away does the Europeans and North Americans no good in the very short term, it is likely to put our industries on a more equal footing in the longer term if we don't squander the opportunity.
Yes, mature and reliable technology for efficient energy storage ~~:smile:

Air-conditioned ski slopes is just showing off, but more power to them (literally). They realize that their energy dominance has peaked, but the demand from the growing wealth in the third world is giving them a reprieve, for now.

Actually, mechanics dictate that that wouldn't work as there is no way you can siphon water more than about 8 m above the surface of the lower reservoir before the pressure at the high point gets so low that the water starts boiling and subsequently freeze the pipe. The siphoning, even if it worked would also rob the 1000 m drop pipe of some pressure and energy at the turbine, allthough this could be managed. However, the project has gone virtually unnoticed despite being one of the largest scale energy storage projects ever undertaken.

I'll take your word for that, pumping it up 100m seems simple enough and practical as you get most of that energy back.

If you think about it dams and high elevation reservoirs are variants on solar energy extraction as sunlight did the original work. The sun heats up and transports the water up into the atmosphere where it precipitates out and is captured at higher elevation reservoirs. Then again sunlight drove the photo-synthesis that arguably captured the original energy for fossil fuels. While there are some alternate theories kicking around about alternate pathways for fossil fuel creation (high pressure deep underground) that are ongoing.

JR

 

[Jack Arnott]

Re: Batteries May Become Obsolete

If you think about it dams and high elevation reservoirs are variants on solar energy extraction as sunlight did the original work. The sun heats up and transports the water up into the atmosphere where it precipitates out and is captured at higher elevation reservoirs. Then again sunlight drove the photo-synthesis that arguably captured the original energy for fossil fuels.
JR

After the first two sentences, I was going to interject that almost all our power comes the sun, with the exception of nuclear.
But you got most of the way there.

And wonderful thing that photosynthesis.

 

[Nick Simon]

Re: Batteries May Become Obsolete

John, are we kin? I swear I hear the same stuff come out of my mouth, but just lacking the more graceful delivery... someday, man, we gotta sit down with a bottle of scotch (or "coke"
for that matter) for a couple of days...