Gibson raided

[John Roberts]

Re: Gibson raided

Deporting 10M+ people is just a straw man argument... It's not even worth debate since it's impractical to even consider,
but they don't deserve citizenship just for being here (illegally). So the real discussion is over what kind of deal do they get? Last group got amnesty and we saw how that incentivized more illegal immigration since then. While our legislators dance around the issue they keep rolling across the border. Only the soft economy has slowed the flow slightly but here with a recession is still a better date than saturday night in Juarez.

I am repeating myself but we need to come up with some other solution besides a simple get out of jail free card. They broke the law so there needs to be a penalty (fine works for me too), and they need to wait, perhaps let them apply for citizenship at some slow modest rate, say 250k a year, after they pay their fines and maybe do some hard labor wall building down south. Those already here get to wait a long time. New comers after them don't even get to wait.

We need to be compassionate to them, but also to the many other millions legally trying to get here, and reduce the temptation for future generations to make the desert hike. There is a win-win, but it needs to make the illegal hop across the border a bad option, not like today where it is clearly worth the risk. If we make the destination prize less attractive for future illegals, less will come. Simple cause and effect.

JR

 

[W. Mark Hellinger]

Re: Gibson raided

Yup now i feel guilty... but only a little. I don't have a pool.

Well... I don't feel guilty at-all. And I don't have a pool either.

So... this morning I caught-up to the intertube news of the day... being the grand plan to get us out of our funk.

The big cheese unvailed his new & improved (or first) idea on the subject, which among other things included: Increase taxes on the "rich".

Based on the facts and figures that were presented... guess what? Liz and I arguably qualify as one of those "rich"... who have been selected to be sheered.

Ok... fair's fair. We live in a 300sq. ft. house, our daily driver is a 15yo. Astrovan I bought offa eBay a few years ago for $1K... from the govt. because they'd culled it out. Liz owns 3 blouses and 2 pairs of jeans... she's currently peeling spuds for dinner for our one meal of the day, and I just finished changing oil in my 30 yo. lawnmower. Admittedly, we have a few toys, sort-of: some 15 - 30 year old sound gear that we keep entertaining the masses with, and some nice tools to do the work with, and we drink coffee in the morning ground from fresh coffee beans. And we have a cat (rodent control). So... based on the stats, we're part of the "rich"... hokey... if they say so... so where does our money go? We buy inventory and construct buildings, and buy manufacturing equipment and associated infersturcture, pay taxes, and write paychecks. Poof- money all gone. Pile more taxes on me... eh? Does anyone who cares to know think I'm going to downsize my living? Like sell my POS 300sq. ft. house and move into something smaller (pray tell what? a pup tent?)? Or sell my 15 yo. Astrovan and buy a cheaper pile of shit? Oh that's right... I also own a 50mpg motorscooter to get me around when I only need to get me around. Or cut down from our customary one meal a day of mostly home grown food and down-size our wardrobe... to like... I dunno... wear gunny sacks and eat weeds and maybe some road kill a couple times a week (assuming a cup of coffee and a cigar in the morning doesn't really count as a "meal")? No... I don't think we'll be doing that... well, we might have to if the shit gets too deep... but before we do that, we'll probably dispense with the whole inventory, buildings, inferstructure, manufacturing, employee, and TAX thing... first... then take it from there.

 

[John Roberts]

Re: Gibson raided

The latest supporter for taxing the "rich" is Warren Buffett and as some will observe he has already got his, so taxing other high earners (income, not wealth) will mostly hinder those trying to catch up to him. If Warren felt that government could spend his wealth wisely he would give it to them instead of his own or his buddy Bill Gate's charities.

The class warfare is a political calculation that far more people view themselves as not wealthy so will embrace taxing other people to reduce their responsibility while keeping the gravy train rolling. I remain optimistic that the majority will not fall for this openly divisive strategy and pursue more sensible, long term solutions.
======

Right now there seems to be a laser like focus on is the economy growing or shrinking, with a overwhelming importance placed on net increase or decrease (recession). Whether we are growing at 1.001x or shrinking at .999x doesn't really matter much to anybody other than the politicians and by extension economic managers. Recall that "borrow and spend" stimulus can increase GDP on paper only slightly, since the debt does not show up in those calculations, just the spending. Keeping us out of technical recession by more borrowing and spending, is only managing the visuals for politics, while increasing our debt without improving the real situation on the ground, arguably making things worse.

The economy is often viewed as some "confidence" game where we just need to get consumers or business feeling good about about the future and they will spend, and hire, and magically everything will work out. This is the thinly veiled logic behind stimulus programs , priming the pump so to speak, but at the end of the day it doesn't really change anything. Does whether consumers bank or spend their marginal dollars really make a difference? In the short term perhaps, but in the long term no it balances out.

We are still trying to recover from a decade long spending spree, where consumers felt "too good" about the future. Inflated home values and easy credit fed on itself, to generate wildly increased spending that rippled through the economy, making everybody look good, until the music stopped. It seems we still have a long way to go to, pay for all that unjustified spending. While it is hard to get accurate numbers, estimates range as high as 20% of home mortgages are still underwater. This is the flip side of the former "house rich" that fueled the decade of drunk sailor consumer spending. Now instead we have "house poor" driving prudent saving and frugality. This is not really a bad thing and reflects reality.

While our fearless leader has instructed Fannie and Freddie to help home buyers in an attempt to reflate housing, the conservators in charge of F & F have just raised fees charged by F&F to bring them more in line with non-government backed financing, in an effort to reduce taxpayer (us) losses.

We will still have a prolonged period of slow growth while consumers continue to de-leverage (reduce debt/increase savings) from their decade of wanton borrowing and spending. The government can change the visuals in the margin as we teeter around zero growth, but for long term recovery they need to reduce the friction on job creation and private sector productivity.

If you don't want people speeding, you fine them, if you don't want people smoking you tax them. If you don't want people creating wealth and jobs you tax/fine them. This is economics 101 (incentives/disincentives). I don't believe our government is thwarting recovery on purpose, but their intent doesn't matter when the result is so damaging. While trickle down economics seems discredited, does anybody think dis-incentivizing the productive sector with simple redistribution will end well? Apparently some do.

We need to be more clear headed about cause and effect. All of our actions have consequences. If they keep doing what they are doing, they will keep getting what they are getting.

JR

 

[Tim McCulloch]

Re: Gibson raided

Funny, but I thought there had to be market demand for a product or service before production. Personal savings rates are up, paying down debt is in fashion again, but there is not enough discretionary spending to benefit retail and durable goods sectors.

In our shop, we'd hire another employee if there was more work. A change in tax system or various regulations on our business would make zero, zip, nada difference in hiring. Not every business is a regional production company and I claim no apples-to-apples comparison, but use it to illustrate that supply cannot exist without demand.

Have fun, happy brewing.

Tim Mc

 

[John Roberts]

Re: Gibson raided

Funny, but I thought there had to be market demand for a product or service before production. Personal savings rates are up, paying down debt is in fashion again, but there is not enough discretionary spending to benefit retail and durable goods sectors.

In our shop, we'd hire another employee if there was more work. A change in tax system or various regulations on our business would make zero, zip, nada difference in hiring. Not every business is a regional production company and I claim no apples-to-apples comparison, but use it to illustrate that supply cannot exist without demand.

Have fun, happy brewing.

Tim Mc

There has to be actual consumer wealth to support a given level of spending (demand) or that demand will collapse when the consumer exhausts their personal credit limit. We just saw what happens when personal wealth and personal credit availability collapses. The demand funded by the imaginary wealth created by the housing bubble disappeared, and the rest of the economy suffered. The economic puppet masters who like to tweak the marginal numbers, play games like mailing checks to tax payers for them to hopefully spend and boost the economy, but this is just more short term manipulation and doesn't change long term trends. Priming the pump doesn't matter if the well is dry.

In terms of your service business, you could extend unlimited credit to your customers and demand would increase, but for how long? How do you pay your new employees if your customers don't pay you?

We are still in a painful readjustment dominated IMO by housing wealth contraction. There are still active attempts to artificially stimulate housing values, for the positive impact this would have on the larger economy, but it's not nice to fool mother nature, so IMO we will all be better served to let these markets find their true bottom and then from that solid foundation they can return to the historical trend of increasing home prices over time. We still have a significant housing inventory imbalance to work through, before normal household formation can support reasonable levels of new home building.

I wouldn't dismiss some creative solutions for ways to clear this excess housing inventory, but they need to be economically sound. Suing banks to prevent foreclosures only delays any realistic settlement. I have heard talk of government programs to rent out these homes which sounds to me like asking for (more) trouble. Something that sounds more economically reasonable to me, is perhaps linking some form of accelerated citizenship opportunity for qualified (legal) immigrants already on waiting lists that can afford to put 20% or some reasonable down payment on an empty (or any) home. Clearing up this inventory overhang would have a ripple effect on the entire economy as private real wealth and consumer buying power would stop falling and begin increasing again. Note: I have been watching home prices relative to inflation adjusted long term price trends for several years and we are getting closer to long term trend lines after years of painful reversing out of bubble gains, but we still have a little ways to go. (This varies between local markets so some are already bottomed, while others are still falling).

My scheme is too simple to be that easy, but it sounds better to me than many ideas I hear in the press. Of course it would require legislation, so would never get through the DC meat grinder, that is clearly in short term election mode.

Note: There is some debate over what is a healthy savings vs. spending rate. I don't think anyone would accuse US consumers of saving too much money. While perhaps prolonging the current short term pain, I consider increased personal savings a healthy trend. The savings are not dead money as bank deposits are available to be lent out (multiple times) and personal investments in the stock market provide capital directly to private business to fund growth.

JR

 

[John Roberts]

Re: Gibson raided

Have fun, happy brewing.

Tim Mc

I just found out that Pres Obama is a home brewer.. I believe i'd enjoy playing basketball and drinking beer with him... He'd probably spank me at basketball, I should hold my own for beer brewing.

JR

 

[W. Mark Hellinger]

Re: Gibson raided

Wow... I'm almost speechless. And a bit shaken... or quite a bit shaken.

I just got back from checking out a house in the neighborhood that's recently been posted as going up for auction by the county due to delinquent property taxes. This house has been abandoned since the spring of 2009... the "owners" bailed and defaulted on the mortgage back then... and the time for paying the piper is coming to a head. Rumor has it that the defaulted bundle of mortgages was somewhere on the order of $250K. The "owner" who defaulted was/is a self employed drywall contractor (read that "basically zero credit worthiness" if my own experiences in seeking credit in the past as a self employed business owner was an accurate indicator).

Ok... well... here's where the rubber hits the road: I checked out the house, and it's a complete dump... or worse... probably built somewhere in the 1880's... NO foundation... crap tacked on crap over the years... original single pane windows falling out of their frames, sagging floors (like really bad… a couple feet of sag in places), '30's era wiring, "vintage" kitchen and bath (bath tacked onto the back when outhouses became less fashionable)... basically a bottom dollar farmhouse that was a piece of crap when it was built, and has been sinking into the ground for the past 130 years. Admittedly it's on a nice sized lot... which at it's peak was maybe worth $5K in this town... but the house itself is probably a $20K or more liability... and has been a $20K liability (adjusted for inflation) for 50+ years.

And some banker loaned somewhere on the order of 250 large on this pile of crap?

How?

If this is in the least indicative of the skeletons in the closet of the housing bubble that burst and is just now coming home to roost... we're in deep doo-do. This seems pretty serious to me... if 10 million houses are upside-down to the tune of 250 large each... that's somewhere on the order of $2.5T

BTW: $2.5T in hundred dollar bills would be a pile that weighs about 27,533 tons (overweight tickets all around if just 1000ea. 18 wheelers tried to haul that many hundred dollar bills down the highway). I don't know if I did my math right, but a thousand 18 wheelers spaced 2 seconds apart, flying down the highway at 60mph, hauling nothing but hundred dollar bills... that would be a string of trucks about 40 miles long stuffed to the legal weight limit with hundred dollar bills to haul $2.5T.

 

[John Roberts]

Re: Gibson raided

Mark you are extrapolating with supposition on top of supposition. A funny image of a large pile of bills, but not instructive about our current situation.

One thing that I find obscene about your example is the time interval you offer for when the home was abandoned, and when it is finally coming to auction. I suspect there are a number of people who had an interest in not facing the reality and just hoping that if they could slow the process, people would somehow be able to stay in the homes they bought for prices that A) don't really reflect what they were worth, or B) they could ever afford.

Some believe they were being helpful by suing banks to slow down and stop the foreclosure process for a while, but non-performing loans, that will never be performing are not really helping anybody by prolonging resolution.

I suspect the mismatch between book value of housing and real value could be a very large number total. I believe numbers as large as 10-15% (some alarmists claim 20%) still to adjust is possible, but this is not Trillions of dollars worth of abandoned farm houses, while a T could be involved in the bottom line number, but the total of all housing is an even bigger number so needs to be held in context.

I believe speedy resolution would help us all get through this. Delaying the inevitable didn't make that POS farmhouse worth more, or help anybody. Dragging our feet on impossible situations do not make them possible.

JR

PS: A good (younger) friend of mine, ignored my advice to be cautious about high home prices and ended upside down in a house (his second or third). All the while telling me to trust him, he knew what he was doing. He ended up accepting a short sale, and starting over from zero. He is now a renter and wiser. While now is actually a much better time to buy a home IMO.

 

[W. Mark Hellinger]

Re: Gibson raided

Mark you are extrapolating with supposition on top of supposition. A funny image of a large pile of bills, but not instructive about our current situation.

For sure... awfulizing to the full extent allowed at a morning coffee booth get-together.

I believe speedy resolution would help us all get through this. Delaying the inevitable didn't make that POS farmhouse worth more, or help anybody. Dragging our feet on impossible situations do not make them possible.

Yup... the time to pull a rotten tooth is before it's festered to the bone.

 

[John Roberts]

Re: Gibson raided

+1

jr

 

[Charlie Zureki]

Re: Gibson raided

I heard this story last week,but then heard nothing untill today. Wish the Feds would go after illegal imigrants like they go after illegal wood.

As a "concerned citizen", when encountering an illegal immigrant living in the US., you should take the initiative and the advice of Homeland Security and contact their "See something/say something" program...

Hammer

 

[John Roberts]

Re: Gibson raided

I am not a fan of big government, but this seems to be a job uniquely within their responsibility, i.e. securing our borders.

They have failed miserably to fund/enforce the legislation they passed the last time they "fixed" this, and now refuse to responsibly address the consequences of that failure. There are multiple self-interests served by some compromise (business needs the cheap labor, and politicians are jockeying to curry the favor of these probable future voters, and sympathetic legal citizens who identify with them).

We have some responsibility to not knowingly employ illegal aliens, but I don't know how to determine who is illegal just from looking at them or talking to them, while I'm sure I encounter some at the food market and around, I am a concerned citizen but i am not going to try to police illegals I think I see in Walmart.

The "see something, say something" program is more targeted at detecting terrorist activity, than day laborers, so adding noise into that information channel could be counter productive for our safety. From the DHS website "Only reports that document behavior reasonably indicative of criminal activity related to terrorism will be shared with federal partners.".

If I see criminal behavior I'll report it to the local police, not DHS.

JR

 

[Charlie Zureki]

Re: Gibson raided

I am not a fan of big government, but this seems to be a job uniquely within their responsibility, i.e. securing our borders.

They have failed miserably to fund/enforce the legislation they passed the last time they "fixed" this, and now refuse to responsibly address the consequences of that failure. There are multiple self-interests served by some compromise (business needs the cheap labor, and politicians are jockeying to curry the favor of these probable future voters, and sympathetic legal citizens who identify with them).

We have some responsibility to not knowingly employ illegal aliens, but I don't know how to determine who is illegal just from looking at them or talking to them, while I'm sure I encounter some at the food market and around, I am a concerned citizen but i am not going to try to police illegals I think I see in Walmart.

The "see something, say something" program is more targeted at detecting terrorist activity, than day laborers, so adding noise into that information channel could be counter productive for our safety. From the DHS website "Only reports that document behavior reasonably indicative of criminal activity related to terrorism will be shared with federal partners.".

If I see criminal behavior I'll report it to the local police, not DHS.

JR

Good Afternoon all...

My post was more of a poke at DHS than it was a prompt to turn everyone into a spy. Employing Illegals is in itself a crimminal act, and not a responsibility.

In regards to adding noise or whatever to the counter terrorism agencies...We really haven't had any terrorist incidents that haven't involved the knowledge or "help" of one American Agency or another.....Christmas Tree Bomber, Underwear Bomber, etc.... they gotta earn their fat Government paychecks

Cheers,
Hammer

 

[John Roberts]

Re: Gibson raided

You can relax a little more now... A michigan man was just ordered held without bond because he had 4000# of explosives. He was discovered when he asked a police informant to help him move it. But you know those dumb-asses up the michigan peninsula... This guy was already facing state charges for something, so perhaps not a model citizen.

The police are understandably nervous about how to store 83 old bags of ammonium nitrate that are falling apart.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/27/us-michigan-explosives-idUSTRE78Q51820110927

But what's the worst thing that could happen?

JR

PS: Guys like this add credence to the domestic terrorist screed, that I don't buy either.. just another random crazy f__ker.

 

[Jack Arnott]

Re: Gibson raided

.. just another random crazy f__ker].

JR, couldn't the argument be made that whether domestic or international, that they are all in this category?

The police are understandably nervous about how to store 83 old bags of ammonium nitrate that are falling apart.

When my mean grandmother died we had a similar situation with what to do with her left over (and deteriorating) dynamite.

Regards, Jack

 

[John Roberts]

Re: Gibson raided

JR, couldn't the argument be made that whether domestic or international, that they are all in this category?

From our frame of reference all acts of terrorism seem irrational, while we see a soldier serving in our military is rationally performing a job. They see us as irrational, or ignorant, for not believing as they do. While there is not just one homogenous "they", there is enough "them" to not relax just yet. The easiest way to get you ass kicked in a fight is to not realize you are in a fight.

I've lost track of how many countries we've popped drones into (Sudan, Yemen, Pakistan, Libya, Afghanistan, etc? ). Cheaper than troops and land wars, and I guess it finesses that pesky "war powers" act.

When my mean grandmother died we had a similar situation with what to do with her left over (and deteriorating) dynamite.

Regards, Jack

I suspect my sweet old grandmother (RIP) may have had some dynamite laying around the farm too. If your grandmother lived in an apartment in the city, or had 2 tons of it laying around, then maybe she did have a mean streak. Back in the old days, dynamite was a farm tool.

JR

 

[W. Mark Hellinger]

Re: Gibson raided

The police are understandably nervous about how to store 83 old bags of ammonium nitrate that are falling apart.

How about spread it out on the lawn, at about 300lbs. actual material per acre, and water it in.

Ammonium Nitrate is first and foremost dandy fertilizer... 34-0-0 as I recall.

80 some-odd bags shouldn't be anything to be concerned with... unless they're really big bags... as the critical mass for ammonium nitrate is somewhere on the order of hundreds (or maybe thousands) of tons.

 

[Jordan Lahr]

Re: Gibson raided

Unfortunately its considered evidence... there for its hard to keep it stored without issue. I know in our local police department in the records divison there are some 12k firearms stored in the basement because they can't legally sell the evidence, at least not yet... everything from a small pistol to a fully automatic AK-47 to the standard issue M16 rifle could be found in there... not to mention the several tons of meth they have to find storage for until the statute of limitations takes over and they can either destroy or auction off the "evidence" (not the meth, they have some form of destruction for that crap here in this state) yay for being a meth state...

 

[Charlie Zureki]

Re: Gibson raided

You can relax a little more now... A michigan man was just ordered held without bond because he had 4000# of explosives. He was discovered when he asked a police informant to help him move it. But you know those dumb-asses up the michigan peninsula... This guy was already facing state charges for something, so perhaps not a model citizen.

The police are understandably nervous about how to store 83 old bags of ammonium nitrate that are falling apart.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/27/us-michigan-explosives-idUSTRE78Q51820110927

But what's the worst thing that could happen?

JR

PS: Guys like this add credence to the domestic terrorist screed, that I don't buy either.. just another random crazy f__ker.

Hello JR.

There has always been people, in every Country that are nutty and have some kind of axe to grind..... there's not enough information in this story to judge whether this guy has/had a serious intent to do any terrorist acts. His supposed statement to his wired "helper" could have been a lousy attempt at humor ..or, he may have been serious, but, it's probably best that this material was "removed" from this guy's storage.

While this Ammonium Nitrate is really fertilizer, and not an uncommon product, that was easily purchased pre 1995 without much hoopla, the deterioration of the bags could mean that this stuff was sitting around for many years.

I hope that this guy gets a fair day in court and is not railroaded or made an example of, if he's guilty of intent, then he should be punished. I do think that some self-righteous, ultra- facist Policing Agents from many Government Agencies believe there is a need "find" suspect terrorists, or even cultivate terrorists to perpetuate a need for spending Billions of dollars on security...there-by justifing their jobs.

These Underware bomber and Christmas tree bombers.... have too much evidence that they have been cultivated by some anti-terrorist American Agents. Reminds me of stories of Firefighters starting fires themselves to "look" like heros when they're there to put it out.

Now this morning, we have some other nut from MA, that seems to have been delivered grenades, and explosives by some Federal Agents. He was supposedly going to load model planes and crash then into Government buildings.

My question is...are these Agents taking advantage of the weak minded and prompting them to these acts, or are they truly finding those before they commit an unaided, unsolicited act?

Hammer

 

[John Roberts]

Re: Gibson raided

Hello JR.

There has always been people, in every Country that are nutty and have some kind of axe to grind..... there's not enough information in this story to judge whether this guy has/had a serious intent to do any terrorist acts. His supposed statement to his wired "helper" could have been a lousy attempt at humor ..or, he may have been serious, but, it's probably best that this material was "removed" from this guy's storage.

While this Ammonium Nitrate is really fertilizer, and not an uncommon product, that was easily purchased pre 1995 without much hoopla, the deterioration of the bags could mean that this stuff was sitting around for many years.

I hope that this guy gets a fair day in court and is not railroaded or made an example of, if he's guilty of intent, then he should be punished. I do think that some self-righteous, ultra- facist Policing Agents from many Government Agencies believe there is a need "find" suspect terrorists, or even cultivate terrorists to perpetuate a need for spending Billions of dollars on security...there-by justifing their jobs.

These Underware bomber and Christmas tree bombers.... have too much evidence that they have been cultivated by some anti-terrorist American Agents. Reminds me of stories of Firefighters starting fires themselves to "look" like heros when they're there to put it out.

Now this morning, we have some other nut from MA, that seems to have been delivered grenades, and explosives by some Federal Agents. He was supposedly going to load model planes and crash then into Government buildings.

My question is...are these Agents taking advantage of the weak minded and prompting them to these acts, or are they truly finding those before they commit an unaided, unsolicited act?

Hammer

Hammer I am guessing you didn't read the link I provided... the authorities also found 2000' of detonating cord, a few dozen blasting caps, and the complaint mentions fuel oil in combination (similar to OK City, and a well known DIY bomb) however they don't list fuel oil in the seized property.

=====

Entrapment is a risk of over aggressive enforcement, while I don't think I could be so easily influenced. Some pea brained are influenced by what they read on the Internet.

If you want to be critical of enforcement, how about those agents who sold guns, planning to track them, and then lost them... WTF were they thinking? They weren't apparently.

JR