hyper inflation in the USA?

Randy Gartner

Junior
Jan 12, 2011
462
18
18
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Pennsylvania
randygartnersound.com
Re: hyper inflation in the USA?

My point is that your government must stop sticking its nose in everyones meal.

You may be surprised to know that I agree with you.We should have never sent our troops over there because their is no stratigic interest for our country.Not only that,but it's about time Europe starts pulling their own weight.If Europe thinks there are problems in Yugolslavia,then they should have taken care of it without us. I am tired of us being the world's police. It costs us alot of money and lives and sometimes makes more enimies than friends. One more thing.When I was in the Navy in the early 70's,I got to visit your country.The part I was in was very beautiful.
 
Feb 28, 2011
34
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san francisco
Re: hyper inflation in the USA?

Going back to the original topic, what is this hyperinflation you people speak of?

Screen shot 2011-03-13 at 12.26.46 AM.png

The Dollar has gained slightly over the Euro and Sterling since quantitative easing began. (And lost against the Yen, obviously, but sadly the earthquake and tsunami are already adjusting that.)

I will go out an a limb and say that so far I am very happy with our government's management of the financial crisis. It is not sexy at all, but I suspect the history books will call this Obama's biggest achievement: taking a likely huge financial meltdown, and softening it into a moderate crisis.

12% unemployment sucks (when your country is used to 5%), but it's sure better than 35%.

Also, 2% inflation, 4% inflation: these are vastly more preferable than even 0.1% deflation. So if the risk of quantative easing is that it might push 2% inflation into 4% inflation -- but it hedges against the real risk of deflation -- I'm all for it.

Marjan: I don't want to pile on, but I do have a couple of points. You offered a link (seems to be broken) to images of bombed-out Detroit. We in the US are aware of that; I have certainly wondered why that area is so depressed while my area of the country is much more prosperous. And there are some very simple economic and demographic reasons for this disparity (but they are hard to fix).

So I have to ask you an analogous question. You refer a number of times to the former Yugoslavia, so that made me think about the region as a whole. Are you saying the US and NATO are entirely to blame for the very different outcomes of various Balkan states? Or to put it another way, are you saying that Macedonia and Kosovo would be just as prosperous as Slovenia, if it weren't for NATO bombs? (This is a real question; I'm not just trying to wind you up. Believe it or not, there are some of us who have studied a bit of your history.)

cheers to all,
waldo
 
Jan 12, 2011
424
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Detroit area
Re: hyper inflation in the USA?

[waldo] Casey Williams;7571 said:
Going back to the original topic, what is this hyperinflation you people speak of?

Marjan: I don't want to pile on, but I do have a couple of points. You offered a link (seems to be broken) to images of bombed-out Detroit. We in the US are aware of that; I have certainly wondered why that area is so depressed while my area of the country is much more prosperous. And there are some very simple economic and demographic reasons for this disparity (but they are hard to fix).

So I have to ask you an analogous question. You refer a number of times to the former Yugoslavia, so that made me think about the region as a whole. Are you saying the US and NATO are entirely to blame for the very different outcomes of various Balkan states? Or to put it another way, are you saying that Macedonia and Kosovo would be just as prosperous as Slovenia, if it weren't for NATO bombs? (This is a real question; I'm not just trying to wind you up. Believe it or not, there are some of us who have studied a bit of your history.)

cheers to all,
waldo

Hello,

In regards to the Detroit problem.... the answers are simple. 1.) The Economic and Population shift to the suburbs has left many properties vacant. 2.) Corrupt and Incompetent City leadership since the early 1970's 3.) Downsizing, Manufacturing Automation and Outsourcing have left many Commercial properties vacant.

In regards to the former Yugoslavia's, now current States.... I think Marjan is saying that some of the real problems have been caused by Western influence after the guns were silenced. That Political decisions and the "steering" afterward, were made based on a willingness to cooperate with our Political and Economic agendas.

That we Americans, tell the World they (other Countries) have the right to self determination, but ignore these Democratic principles when in true negotiations.

Hammer
 
Re: hyper inflation in the USA?

Here is the thing. If you compare the situation in Slovenia today, and compare it to the situation that we had in Yugoslavia back in 1989, you will see that Slovenia is still under the level of prosperity that we had in Yugoslavia back then. You can ask Ales about this.
Yugoslavia fall apart and that could have been a peaceful process as with Czech and Slovaks, but the situation was quite different here. When we started practicing democratic way of electing the government, then nationalist parties arise and their leaders were vastly supported by the western countries and they gained power which leaded to separation movement in Croatia. Slovenia wanted independence even earlier but their motives were more economical then ethnic and they should have just waited a bit more and all will be settled without any conflict. There weren't any mayor conflicts there anyway.
What happened later in Croatia and Bosnia is all a history now but funny is that all blame Serbs only. That is soo not the case here.
As for Macedonia and Kosovo that is another story. Kosovo is a very bad example to even talk about it. Supporting them was one of the biggest mistake US has ever made. And that will be sadly be proven in the future. Serbs have fought with the Ottoman Empire for Kosovo in the famous Kosovo battle back in 1389. Albanians were non existent there until the last 60 years. They made a demographic boom there by having 10-15 children and gain in number. They were supported by entire Yugoslavia as a underdeveloped region for decades. They didnt payed any taxes, they didnt let their children go to school, their womans have no right they were just a baby making machines.
They are Europe leaders in drug trafficking, people trafficking, look at the latest news about organ trafficking and abducting Serbs during the conflict in order to kill them and harvest organs.
You need to come here to understand who you supported. You would be very disappointed.
It is much more different here then it is presented to you there. No studies can be done without spending some time here to understand the core of the problem.

I will ask you one thing. Can someone explain me why the war in Kosovo started? I am really curious to see how much you are miss informed about it.
 
Who's pulling who's wheight?

You may be surprised to know that I agree with you.We should have never sent our troops over there because their is no stratigic interest for our country.Not only that,but it's about time Europe starts pulling their own weight.If Europe thinks there are problems in Yugolslavia,then they should have taken care of it without us. I am tired of us being the world's police. It costs us alot of money and lives and sometimes makes more enimies than friends. One more thing.When I was in the Navy in the early 70's,I got to visit your country.The part I was in was very beautiful.

Randy.

First of all, the dog ate my homework (well actually, it was my browser).

I hadn't thought I'd join the forums to join in on a topic as flammable as this one, but I thought your statement that "Europe needs to pull their own wheight" too interesting not to join in: Most people I communicate with here in Euroworld seem to be of the opinion that the US are the "freeloaders". As I understand it, the US government has massive debts to, amongst many others, the UN, that everybody knows will never be collected. So when the US goes ahead and does something like invade Iraq, esentially it's paid for by someone else, anyway. Having been raised an "Army brat" I have grown up with an understanding that the Nato members enjoy the security of a partner with lots of strategic atomic weapons and aircraft carriers, and in exchange the US reaps great hospitality, benefits and "freebees" all over Europe. Perhaps it's not as black/white as you portray, anyway?

PS: I have several friends who served in Kosovo after the bombing stopped when someone was needed to police the chaos. Norway contributed with a force of about 1400 to soldiers which sounds puny, but we are only 4,5 million people to begin with. Other Euro nations contributed substantially larger forces, as did Canada, who are also a NATO partner. Amazingly, my friends report back that when they were trained to go they were trained to protect the Albanians from the Serbs. Within hours of arriving they quickly discovered that the "balance of power" had shifted in just about every neighbourhood as the Albanians now outnumbered the few Serbs that didn't/couldn't flee. They spent their 50 weeks there protecting the people they were trained to stop from commiting genocide. This conflict is a lot more complex that at first glance, I think.

PPS: In the eighties, Yugoslavia was "the place to go" for Euro holiday makers seeking sun, fun, food, drink and relaxation. It was the number one holiday destination especially for families looking to relax in the sun in a safe place. All of that is gone now, of course.
 

Ron Kreiger

Freshman
Jan 11, 2011
46
0
0
60
Pennsylvania
www.s-o-t.com
Re: hyper inflation in the USA?

I will ask you one thing. Can someone explain me why the war in Kosovo started? I am really curious to see how much you are miss informed about it.

Which part of it? Prior to the formation of the KLA or after the Rambouillet talks?

While I dont claim to be an expert on this subject I do have 2 very close friends here in the states who are Serbs. They go back to the home land at least once every two years because their parents are still living there.

While like others I am not always happy with our governments involvement in foreign matters nor the way we sometimes handle things.Ethnic diversities can often be very difficult matters for everyone involved and I'm not sure there are any easy answers.

However NATO acted at the moment when suspected crimes against humanity were supposedly taking place.What happened 200 or 2000 years ago is not something you can act upon.The actors are no longer alive and what's done is done.No matter how hard you try and make that right you simply cant!

Ethnic cleansing by way of displacement is one thing but ethnic cleansing by way of murder is genocide, irregardless of non-Serb classification according to law could not be used to define the group that genocide was committed against. But I digress because I'm pretty sure had the KLA had their way entirely they probably would have started doing the same thing.

So I agree it probably wasn't in our best interest overall but I ask you this.......what guarantee can you provide that more talks would have stopped the internal carnage between the Serbs,Kosovo Albanians, and the KLA and those Serbs stuck in Kosovo? As I understand it that's what many feel should have been the course of action in the matter.
 
Jan 12, 2011
424
0
0
Detroit area
Re: Who's pulling who's wheight?

Hello,

Not picking a side in the Albanian/Serb/Croatian/Macedonian, etc.... but, many "refugees" of this revolution were allowed Political asylum and were settled in Michigan in the late 1990's. With this wave of immigration, brought the untypical amounts of brutality in their perpetrated crimes. Beheadings were extremely rare in Michigan until then.

Since then, it seems that many of these "bad actors" have been shaken out of the society, by imprisonment or by expulsion. These ethnic problems still exist, but are now dealt with by typical shootings and stabbings.

Back to the original topic... the U.S. should not be the police of the World. This mentality, has created hundreds of Military Bases around the World, and including the two wars we're in, our Military and Security expenditures are the largest part of our Government's Budget.

Hammer
 

John Roberts

Graduate Student
Jan 12, 2011
2,309
3
38
MS
www.resotune.com
Re: hyper inflation in the USA?

First, thank you very much for actually responding on topic... It seems the difficulty in treating people with mutual respect spills over into these forums. I hope we don't wear out our welcome and can still have adult conversations here. This is not about belittling each other, or proving each other wrong, but actually listening to each other.

OK back on topic
[waldo] Casey Williams;7571 said:
Going back to the original topic, what is this hyperinflation you people speak of?

View attachment 845

The Dollar has gained slightly over the Euro and Sterling since quantitative easing began. (And lost against the Yen, obviously, but sadly the earthquake and tsunami are already adjusting that.)
We still have balance of trade issues and the dollar is not operating completely in a vacuum. While the yuan exchange rate is also important, I suspect our quantitative easing significant, but there is also a fear premium that props up the dollar in the face of international uncertainty, like now. The near future expectation is for reduced QE (soon) and rising interest rates (perhaps as soon as later this year). These will both strengthen the USD. Several western countries have already raised interested rates since the credit collapse, so we are behind which affects relative strength.

QE has always been presented as a temporary strategy, just until inflation clearly takes hold and risk of a deflationary spiral has passed. The fed has a long track record of being too slow to remove stimulus that has arguably led to several past bubbles. Some of the fed governors are already opposed to prolonging the current QE. I don't see all the data they do, but my sense is we should start unwinding the stimulus, despite our 9% unemployment and a housing market that hasn't solidly bottomed yet.

Do I believe this will happen before 2012 elections, not likely... so we could be looking at another bubble.
I will go out an a limb and say that so far I am very happy with our government's management of the financial crisis. It is not sexy at all, but I suspect the history books will call this Obama's biggest achievement: taking a likely huge financial meltdown, and softening it into a moderate crisis.
I am disappointed.

The TARP program was supposed to purchase distressed assets to create a market and price discovery for these instruments that weren't trading and locking up the credit markets. Instead the TARP program became a slush fund to rescue companies that probably should have been allowed to fail. Instead they were encourage to buy each other, leaving us with fewer, larger, organizations, beholding to the government, and now even larger than the previous too-large-to-fail.

The "rescue" of GM and Chrysler is likewise subject to criticism. Again the administration picked winners and losers among the involved parties. The real losers were the larger car industry and taxpayers. If GM was allowed to fail without manipulating the outcome, the productive assets would have been purchased and put back into service. The only thing that happened is the losing recipe was perpetuated, to fail again. This is already the second time for Chrysler.
12% unemployment sucks (when your country is used to 5%), but it's sure better than 35%.
Which country are you talking about? US in nominally 9% or so, while there are many who have dropped out of the race.
Also, 2% inflation, 4% inflation: these are vastly more preferable than even 0.1% deflation. So if the risk of quantative easing is that it might push 2% inflation into 4% inflation -- but it hedges against the real risk of deflation -- I'm all for it.
agreed... but there is also some question about measuring (core) inflation ex-energy and food prices. Energy and food expenses are real and felt by consumers. The still deflating housing market is a significant downward drag on prices, while we hope that will bottom soon.
Marjan: I don't want to pile on, but I do have a couple of points. You offered a link (seems to be broken) to images of bombed-out Detroit. We in the US are aware of that; I have certainly wondered why that area is so depressed while my area of the country is much more prosperous. And there are some very simple economic and demographic reasons for this disparity (but they are hard to fix).

So I have to ask you an analogous question. You refer a number of times to the former Yugoslavia, so that made me think about the region as a whole. Are you saying the US and NATO are entirely to blame for the very different outcomes of various Balkan states? Or to put it another way, are you saying that Macedonia and Kosovo would be just as prosperous as Slovenia, if it weren't for NATO bombs? (This is a real question; I'm not just trying to wind you up. Believe it or not, there are some of us who have studied a bit of your history.)

cheers to all,
waldo

I am backing away from the veer... perhaps that could be reposted as new topic, if it seems productive to discuss it further. I think I understand how Marjan feels by now.

JR
 
Re: Who's pulling who's wheight?

Bennett we try to be polite and so far i dont see anything then a debate here.
One of the things for the situation USA it is today is exactly your involvement in someone else's affairs.

Ron, problems in Kosovo date a lot more then KLA or Rambouillet.
Here is a bit of explanation that might help in understanding the problem.

After the WW2 when Enver Hodza came on power in Albania many albaninas find refuge in Yugoslavia (Kosovo) and they were granted asylum there. They were around 200 000 of them. 40 years later they have grown in number significantly due to making a lot of children and all the sudden they want their own Country. They had all possible rights that one can imagine. I dont think that any ethnic minority in the world had more rights then they did.
They started forming a paramilitary formations and started attacking the police when they tried to enforce the law. Serbs were slowly forced to leave their houses because the hostile environment and that is how they became a majority in Kosovo.

Imagine this kind of situation in the US states where you have a Mexican majority. If one day they stop paying taxes and proclaim independence and start killing police and tax officers, what would you do?
 
Jan 12, 2011
424
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Detroit area
Re: Who's pulling who's wheight?

One of the things for the situation USA it is today is exactly your involvement in someone else's affairs. Exactly, we have enough to deal with, let others work out their problems.


Imagine this kind of situation in the US states where you have a Mexican majority. If one day they stop paying taxes and proclaim independence and start killing police and tax officers, what would you do?

It's been happenng in this Country, although, the claims for independence has quieted down in recent months. When/if the economy picks up enough to preoccupy the average American with work and new prosperity, the claims for independance will begin again. Depending on who/whom you believe 10-30 Million Illegals don't pay taxes and many send their money to their homelands.

Hammer

ps. It was the Albanians that had brought this round of beheadings to Michigan. I do not have any particular dislike for Albanians, just reporting the story.
 

John Roberts

Graduate Student
Jan 12, 2011
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Re: Who's pulling who's wheight?

I will probably regret re-entering this scrum but for the record, thoughtful respectful debate involves mostly presenting facts or logical arguments to support personal opinion, not just repeating opinion and saying others can't understand.

If indeed christian and muslim religions can not co-exist what is the practical solution? Wait for one to obliterate the other (rhetorical don't answer)? India by example suggests that is is possible for disparate religions to coexist under a democracy, but isolated violence still occurs there (and here). Law and civil rule should prevent this ultimate denial of civil rights, the right to live.

IMO there is not a simple answer to this, and leaving to their own devices those inclined to just kill those who do not belong to the same clan, or pray the way they like, seems a poor choice. Such behavior belongs back in our hunter-gather distant past, not in modern civilized society. IMO there should be more push back from inside the affected communities, who feel this behavior is unacceptable and stop it from within, but perhaps I truly can not know exactly how they all think. We certainly don't share a common background, and I understand how powerful different groups personal motives for revenge can be, but perpetuating violence is not a practical means to ever ending the cycle of violence.

JR
 
Re: Who's pulling who's wheight?

JR thing is that for different ethnic communities to live together, there has to be a long period of peace so things can be left behind. We had 7 wars here during the last 100 years. Many people have died (millions if you count them all) and you dont forget the death of your family members that easy. Bad blood spill stays in ones mind for a life time. Very often for generations. That is why taking side in any conflict is not always a solution.
Take a look at the middle east. You think that peace will ever be a reality in Gaza or West bank? And how is that different to what happened in Kosovo? Why dont you bombard Israel? Or Turkey for killing many Kurds each year!? There are number of examples that apply. Think Baskia, Northern Ireland, Corsica and so on... not much different, they all want independence.
 

John Roberts

Graduate Student
Jan 12, 2011
2,309
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www.resotune.com
Re: Who's pulling who's what?

The only side to ever take in any conflict is against oppression, but if atrocities are not clearly visible to a sympathetic world audience it generally gets ignored, by that world.

Haiti's crushing poverty gets ignored between the occasional national disaster, and those relief efforts are reminiscent of politician waving their arms and posturing to look good in the news clips, instead of putting any effort toward correcting root causes. Sudan likewise is mostly below the radar screen and genocide there has been tolerated by the international community for years.

The Palestinian issue is complex and I won't take that bait besides offering in passing that IMO there is more going on there than meets the eye (or world news). This appears to be a proxy or surrogate war against israel whose very existence would be denied by several of their neighbors if it was within their power. The displaced Palestinians could have been absorbed into other countries by now, but that doesn't serve their larger purpose of keeping international pressure on Israel. I'd be willing to relocate that entire nation to somewhere in TX, but i believe they are tired of moving, and wouldn't come.

We can waste a lot of time and effort blaming numerous parties for how we got this way, but even perfecting that blame does not solve any problem. We need to stop killing each other for bad reasons. Not that there are ever good reasons.

JR

PS: in an interesting coincidence, there was an "old Armenian home" in the small town in north Jersey where i grew up in the 50's. They were very old and not very many by then, having been relocated to avoid ethnic killings several decades earlier. The world can be a mean and ugly place.
 
Feb 28, 2011
34
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san francisco
Re: Who's pulling who's wheight?

Imagine this kind of situation in the US states where you have a Mexican majority. If one day they stop paying taxes and proclaim independence and start killing police and tax officers, what would you do?

Well, if you swap "US" and "Mexican", what I would do is call it Texas!
:lol::lol::lol:
And if that doesn't fit perfectly, then I would call it California.

JR, I guess I used the figures 5% and 12% in relation to unemployment because those are my local numbers. We're privileged here in Northern California to expect 5% unemployment in normal times, and currently it's 12%. You are correct with the national figures, and your other points are well taken. My opinion is that the missteps in the TARP funding and implementation are typical loopholes, and a bit of overspending. But I take those shortcomings with a dose of realism -- government solutions are always imperfect solutions, but at best they get the job done. And that's what I see, fundamentally, in the handling of the economic crisis.

Speaking of the things that governments spend money on, I'll finish with a kinda funny story. At my club tonight was a French band I really like, but the turnout was less than half of what I expected. Surprise -- they have a tour bus (which seems a little ambitious for this level of tour), also an engineer who I recognized has mixed our room a couple of times before. (But I couldn't remember which acts he had toured with before.)

Had a great gig, despite the low atendance, and as the load-out was beginning, I said to the band engineer, 'hey, it's a pretty well-funded tour here, with the tour bus and all.' He replied, 'oh yeah, well last time I was here with F_____ (UK act) and before that with N_____ (DK act). I only tour with European acts since they get government subsidies which pay for things like busses.'

So do I wish our government spent money on subsidizing live music and not on invading Iraq? You bet. We'd all be getting rich in that case!

waldo
 
Jan 10, 2011
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The city with big shoulders
Re: Who's pulling who's wheight?

Wasn't paying attention to this thread, then I got home after mixing a panel discussion on the Irish economic situation(a lot of which is mirrored in the U.S., and is also tied to French and German banks holding their debt), which featured Peter Schiff as one of the panelists. Then Mr. Schiff gave a talk with Q&A for an hour after that.

An engaging speaker with a book to sell, he can't deny that, but a couple of his major hammering points are valid, especially the way the Fed is now just into a vicious cycle of printing more money-the nasty situation that the taxpayer is getting robbed wholesale to pay for gov't spending, and the possible/inevitable second crash to the ecomony the politicians don't care about.

Only time will tell. Hopefully they'll correct the destructive path before it's too late.

John