hyper inflation in the USA?

Re: Who's pulling who's wheight?

John Halliburton said:
Wasn't paying attention to this thread, then I got home after mixing a panel discussion on the Irish economic situation(a lot of which is mirrored in the U.S., and is also tied to French and German banks holding their debt), which featured Peter Schiff as one of the panelists. Then Mr. Schiff gave a talk with Q&A for an hour after that.

An engaging speaker with a book to sell, he can't deny that, but a couple of his major hammering points are valid, especially the way the Fed is now just into a vicious cycle of printing more money-the nasty situation that the taxpayer is getting robbed wholesale to pay for gov't spending, and the possible/inevitable second crash to the ecomony the politicians don't care about.

Only time will tell. Hopefully they'll correct the destructive path before it's too late.

John
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Yup Schiff is from the chicken little camp and probably selling a lot of books these days.

I am following Ron Paul, now that he is in a position to do something more than piss into the wind. His son in the senate can promote more conservative fiscal behavior over there but from the minority side of the aisle.

I repeat caution about leaping to simple answers. Fractional reserve banking has created a tremendous amount of economic growth that we have all benefited from, but like any powerful lever, it needs to be treated carefully since throwing too much fuel on the economic fire, can (and does) cause problems.

Good luck to us all...

JR
 
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Re: hyper inflation in the USA?

Just to clarify:

I was not speaking of hyper inflation but asking if the actual QE pace might lead to one.

I agree that the dollar is not operating in a vacuum, other currency keepers might react accordingly in order to keep or improve import / export balances, so currency exchange rates are not telling the whole story, I think.
 
Re: hyper inflation in the USA?

Hello,

My prediction is that, the Dollar will be worthless and the U.S. will be bankrupt if there is not a noticable increase in Employment in this year. The only thing that will keep our economy afloat, or delay the Dollar's fall, will be the U.S. Agricultural Industry. The Ag Industry will be hard hit also depending on how high the Oil Speculators drive up the prices.

If the cost of Gasoline hits $4.80 per gallon, the President will release the Strategic Oil reserves, (under criticism) to help cap the costs. Drilling should begin immediately in Colorado, Alaska and the Ohio river valley. Although we are supplied only about 20% of our Oil from the Mideast, we need to wean ourselves from that teat. Given all of the associated costs of their Oil, it's far too pricey.

Hammer
 
Re: hyper inflation in the USA?

Agriculture? With 60 cents of every dollar coming from over 180 billion in government subsidies, I don't see a lot of stability in that industry, either! But globally, with the size and quality of our landmass, it's reasonable to look at food products as a solid export, if we were willing to get on board with international testing standards.
 
Re: hyper inflation in the USA?

Charlie Zureki said:
Hello,

My prediction is that, the Dollar will be worthless and the U.S. will be bankrupt if there is not a noticable increase in Employment in this year. The only thing that will keep our economy afloat, or delay the Dollar's fall, will be the U.S. Agricultural Industry. The Ag Industry will be hard hit also depending on how high the Oil Speculators drive up the prices.
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Feel free to send me all your worthless dollars. :-)

Tension in the middle east is actually putting a bid under the dollar supporting it out of fear. There is a double whammy for oil prices, with supply uncertainty as we watch Gaddafi spank the rebels. One way or the other libya will eventually sell their oil to somebody, but the Saudis moving troops into Bahrain is not a sign of calm there.

The future of the dollar depends on several things. For the record 9% unemployment means 91% employment... not all that bad as a whole, unless you're in that 9%. That said it has an impact on the mentality of the 91% with pay checks so they are more frugal. Not completely a bad thing.

QE2 is due to stop soon, and economists are predicting US interest rate increases later this year, both of which should buoy the dollar.

Congress still can't shoot straight and pass a budget, for this year, let alone next year, and that is their actual job... arghhh. The good news is the arguments are now about how much to cut the deficit, and reducing spending instead of increasing borrowing.

So IMO what is going on in congress wrt spending right now will have significant impact on future dollar strength or weakness.

AG will take a hit, if congress figures out we can't afford to keep subsidizing ethanol, but the farm state lobby is strong.
If the cost of Gasoline hits $4.80 per gallon, the President will release the Strategic Oil reserves, (under criticism) to help cap the costs. Drilling should begin immediately in Colorado, Alaska and the Ohio river valley. Although we are supplied only about 20% of our Oil from the Mideast, we need to wean ourselves from that teat. Given all of the associated costs of their Oil, it's far too pricey.

Hammer
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I'm with you about increasing drilling here... It is inexplicable to me that we don't.

The SPR is for emergencies. Short term high prices are not an emergency, and are based on what the market thinks future prices will be. There is plenty of supply but smart people are betting it will go up in the future. I think they are probably correct considering our lame ass energy policy. Maybe if we connected those new windmills to oil drilling rigs. :-)

FWIW the commodity market regulators have recently increased the margin requirements for oil futures investments to discourage casual speculation, but there is a lot of smart and very serious investment speculation going on, for obvious reasons. Its a winning investment (so far). If the oil market fundamentals don't support actual higher prices in the future, all those investments turn into losing trades. Speculation alone cannot keep prices high contrary to fundamentals, while OPEC manipulating supply would be nice to break...

If we want to break the back of oil prices, we need to drill enough to create a small marginal surplus in world supply, so OPEC can't manipulate their supply to keep prices high. I think at above $100 it is even higher than the OPEC cartel is happy with because it will cause demand destruction, people will buy more efficient cars and drive less (so yes the price is even too high for the pushers). Prolonged high prices will also encourage investment in alternatives (like shale oil and tar sands).

Drill baby drill...

JR

PS: ---deleted---

PPS: An interesting observation about gold... A few years ago all the late night TV ads were trying to buy old gold jewelry from consumers. Now the late night TV ads are selling it back to them. :-)
 
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Re: hyper inflation in the USA?

Lee Dickinson said:
Agriculture? With 60 cents of every dollar coming from over 180 billion in government subsidies, I don't see a lot of stability in that industry, either! But globally, with the size and quality of our landmass, it's reasonable to look at food products as a solid export, if we were willing to get on board with international testing standards.
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Hello,
Stability in food prices is most directly affected by the weather patterns (in this Country).

Yes, but, crop yields in other Countries have been down and their prices are up, (part of the cause of these revolutionary uprises). The US gives away/sells more food than we consume. When it comes to starvation, they won't care where/how the food is tested and whether it's genetically enhanced.


Ships are being loaded as we speak, to aid the Japanese. I'm hoping there are no more earth shakes for them....but, I fear it's not over.

Hammer
 
Re: hyper inflation in the USA?

Charlie Zureki said:
Hello,
Stability in food prices is most directly affected by the weather patterns (in this Country).

Yes, but, crop yields in other Countries have been down and their prices are up, (part of the cause of these revolutionary uprises). The US gives away/sells more food than we consume. When it comes to starvation, they won't care where/how the food is tested and whether it's genetically enhanced.


Ships are being loaded as we speak, to aid the Japanese. I'm hoping there are no more earth shakes for them....but, I fear it's not over.

Hammer
Click to expand...

There is some debate between economists about the root cause of food price increases, besides the ebb and flow of regional weather. Indeed some of the unrest in poor nations is due to food prices that are often subsidized by governments, as much as they can, but harder every day.

One argument is that the QE and monetary expansion is raising international food prices, while I suspect the more powerful fundamental cause, is citizens in developing nations eating higher up the food chain. As the developing world acquires a western-like taste for beef and meats, the amount of animal feed required to make the equivalent number of meat meals compared to eating simple rice or grain is several times. I doubt they are going to give up their big mac for noodles any time soon, so this demand trend increasing faster and on top of population growth seems irreversible (to me).

Maybe we should start eating noodles.. :-)

JR
 
Re: Who's pulling who's wheight?

Ryan Lantzy said:
end the fed! End the fed! End the fed!
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But I will repeat... Beware of simple answers...

Marginal reserve banking has created huge wealth, but it require a steady hand to avoid overshooting.

I fear that Ron Paul's calls to audit the Fed, on the surface sounds like smart oversight, but with congress doing the auditing that is tantamount to putting the foxes in charge of the hen house,,

They have already demonstrated how they treated the Fannie and Freddie piggy banks when left to their ways (and means). I'd hate to give them more say over the Fed, while somebody sure needs to be responsible and answerable... to we the people...

Interesting question.. free markets still need police, to deal with occasional excesses. Certainly some push back from Paul, won't hurt, just don't give him dynamite and matches. He would blow the place up.

JR
 
Re: hyper inflation in the USA?

John Roberts said:
Drill baby drill...
JR
PS: The only people who embrace high oil prices are the tree huggers who hate fossil fuel use, no matter how bad it hurts the economy, and regressively hurts poor people more than wealthy.
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Wow JR. I am going to have to call traveling on you. You saw a hole open up, headed for the basket with such enthusiasm you forgot to dribble. Or even breath.
Seems months of not getting to vent on anything Political, Economical, or Religical have built up enough reserves that you saw one opening, and suddenly unburdened every thing on your chest.
Now through some weird trip in your head, environmentalists cause hyper-inflation.

I love that you went to the Rush Limbaugh/Tea Bagger non-sequitur of "Environmentalists are the only people who are happy that........"
(You are wrong because this week the answer is "The Nuclear Power Plants in Japan are melting down.")
(Liberals and Environmentalists are technically interchangeable in this argument form.) (Which breaks at least two rules of logic.)
(And is some sort of weird anti-Jewish mother amalgamation.)

I am not making this up. Rush used this very line this week.

Anyway, the environment is that which surrounds us. Or, what we live in.
So, if I am an environmentalist, are you anti surroundings?
You don't care about the place you live in?

And technically, the countries that care the most about the environment are much healthier than we are.
We (Americans) have about the 35th highest lifespan of countries in the world. Not too impressive.
In countries that are more concerned about the environment not only are the lifespans longer, but the disparity between the rich and the poor are much lower.
There is much less poverty. Arguably better quality of life. Maybe not as many i-pods, big screen TVs, hollywood stars, or line arrays. But they eat better, live longer,
have a higher relative wealth in the community, and are better educated.

We have fallen off sharply in education too recently. Discounting those over 40, meaning having been out of college for a while and in the work force, the US is not even in the top 25 in
those that are college educated. It used to be under Mao the Chinese were famous for rote memory. Now, with no child left behind, and test scores being the single most driving part of
our education that has become us. We are no longer encouraging creativeness. Which is important in many forms of problem solving and innovation, not just entertainment.
In a weird switching of places the Chinese are now using creative methods in their schools, and it is one reason that they are passing us up in education.

I would agree with Marjan. We have a lot to get in order in our own house. We don't need to be poking our noses in everybody else's business to tell them how to run their affairs.

Regards, Jack
 
Re: hyper inflation in the USA?

Mike Butler (media) said:
Rob, the "hidden statistic" is found in the U6 rate, which has been in the 16-17% range for almost two years.
http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp
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Hello Mike,
You and Rob are of course right. There are other factors that are more encouraging though.
For example, a friend of my wife and his wife started a family. While before they were both working, now she stays home with the kids.
This was a purely economical decision, as the care for the kids was going to cost too much in relation to what she was bringing home.
So, she does not fall into the 9%, but does fall into the 17%.

Of a more positive note.
The rate in the public sector remains the same, or is slightly higher.
The rate in the private sector is dropping. And growth in the last couple of months has been hampered more by weather than by economics.

Regards, Jack
 
Re: hyper inflation in the USA?

John Roberts said:
PS: The only people who embrace high oil prices are the tree huggers who hate fossil fuel use, no matter how bad it hurts the economy, and regressively hurts poor people more than wealthy.
Click to expand...
This sort of subtle troll-speak is exactly why politics talk was banned on PSW, and will hopefully soon be banned here on Soundforums.net.

Makes me wish for a granular ignore feature, where I could ignore a users posts in one forum, but not another. That way I could continue to enjoy certain users helpful and educational sound-related posts, while not being bothered by their political trolling in the Basement. Or I guess I could just stop reading this section period and stick to posting in the Basement at PSW. Ugh! :(
 
Re: Who's pulling who's wheight?

John Roberts said:
But I will repeat... Beware of simple answers...

Marginal reserve banking has created huge wealth, but it require a steady hand to avoid overshooting.

I fear that Ron Paul's calls to audit the Fed, on the surface sounds like smart oversight, but with congress doing the auditing that is tantamount to putting the foxes in charge of the hen house,,

They have already demonstrated how they treated the Fannie and Freddie piggy banks when left to their ways (and means). I'd hate to give them more say over the Fed, while somebody sure needs to be responsible and answerable... to we the people...

Interesting question.. free markets still need police, to deal with occasional excesses. Certainly some push back from Paul, won't hurt, just don't give him dynamite and matches. He would blow the place up.

JR
Click to expand...

I listen to Ron Paul for a while.

There are never easy, working, solutions to a complex problem.

Asked how he would go ahead during and after the audition: - cut every budget (as much as possible), cut taxes. While it's a simple concept, gouverment budget cuts mean rising unemployment. Like in Germany, lean gouverment means there are fewer people actually working there, paying taxes but more people not working there, costing money. So the effect ist countered.

Nevertheless the FED has to watch the exit point of the current QE in order to not become an addict.
 
Re: Who's pulling who's wheight?

I was looking at this statistics
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/AOMC/Overview.html
Per the graph oil went up significantly since 2005. So i wonder what caused this. Expensive oil means expensive everything. Is this just a profit game by the oil corporations to get even more rich? I really can not justify a 100%+ rise in price. Oil corps are well known in their effort to keep all the research for cheaper energy down in order to profit longer.
Now i know that Chinese economic boom made a big demand but still this is not going anywhere. We buy cheap Chinese products and then spend what we saved on petrol. Crazy.
 
Re: Who's pulling who's wheight?

Hello,

I believe that the Oil Industry is corrupt, and engages in price fixing . As an example.... the recent price increases in Oil is blamed on the Revolutions in North Africa. The current U.S. Oil prices can be argued that they should not have increased as significantly as they have, by the virtue that we get almost no Oil from Africa....other than Sudan.

If one were to consider the huge profits gained by Oil Companies in the last ten years, it should be apparent that they are manipulating the cost to the consumer. They are the only big industry that has continually shown a profit.

Regarding Tax cuts... this same stupid rhetoric has been spewed by groups for years without considering the massive deficits on the books. They chant and chant for Tax cuts yet, get on the bandwagon for foreign aid (payoffs) and Increased "Security" and Military spending. (by the way, we currently have the lowest Tax bills in thirty years)

I'm all for Tax cuts...AFTER a realistic budget can be realized. A realistic budget would include the dissolution of the many Agencies (over 120) that were created in the last 10 years. Dissolve the U.S. Department of Education, which is not effective and Costly, and put Education back in the hands of the individual States.

Close 56 of our Over-Seas Military Bases...

Hammer
 
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